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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (16408)	3/12/2003 7:13:30 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 57684

Twilight Zone By Stephen Roach Morgan Stanley Mar 10, 2003 morganstanley.com <<...On the economic front, the world now appears to be in the early stages of a fairly predictable shock-induced downturn. America’s labor market data leave little doubt as to the direction of the next move in the economy -- down, not up. The only questions, in my view, pertain to severity and duration. February’s outsize job losses totaling 308,000 workers cannot be dismissed as weather-related statistical noise. As indicated by sharply rising jobless claims data over the past three weeks, conditions in the US labor market are deteriorating markedly. An oil shock always hits corporate hiring; the accompanying confidence shock only compounds the problem. As jobs and income generation come under intensified pressure, further consolidation of the over-extended American consumer seems likely. And without the consumer, the US economy will fold. I reiterate my view that odds of a recessionary relapse in the United States are high and rising...>>