Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Malcolm Winfield who wrote (20154)	3/12/2003 2:27:24 PM
From: Nello Filippone	Respond to of 206093

This is exactly the pessimism we need for a bottom ... let's keep it up!

To: Malcolm Winfield who wrote (20154)	3/12/2003 2:31:37 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

Why place limitations on ourselves? The price of oil can and does disconnect from the movement of share prices. I prefer, "follow the trend stupid." <vbg> What good is it to buy the OSX at 86, based on terrific fundamentals, if the OSX is going to drop to 70 or 60 first? Bull market strategies aren't very successful in a bear market environment. We either adjust to market conditions or we should sit on the sidelines until the strategy we use has a "high probability" of success. Saw that Pedro pitched well the other day. Ahhhh, the hope of spring. dabum

To: Malcolm Winfield who wrote (20154)	3/12/2003 3:19:54 PM
From: Big Dog	Respond to of 206093

No, it IS the price of oil. That does not mean that there is a direct and immediate co-relation between OSX success and oil prices. Eventually OSX companies will reap the benefits of higher oil/gas pricing. It WILL happen. It HAS to happen, unless we stop using the stuff. The missing link in the picture today is the failure of translating higher commodity pricing to higher capital spending. As mentioned before, watch the rig count, both land and offshore. When rig counts start moving, so will the stocks of service companies. It used to be that there was a more direct, knee-jerk, reaction to rising commodity prices that very quickly translated to higher CAPEX and higher rig counts. The only thing different now is the lag effect between those two events. I also think dabum's approach is first-class and am learning from him. My view is macro and long-term. big

To: Malcolm Winfield who wrote (20154)	3/12/2003 5:58:23 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Respond to of 206093

>>>So can we say once and for all that it's "not the price of oil stupid". <<< Malcolm, let me weigh in on the side of "no you can't". It is the price of oil & gas that matters. What's happening here is the valuations placed on equities is going down, as would be expected in a bear market. Most people around these parts are used to the multiples applied to energy companies in the midst of the bubble. Not that many folks were around in '93 when the gulf was called the Dead Sea, and lots of our favs were selling for 20% of where they are now. Even fewer in the mid-80's when you could buy an oil supply house with money you got from returning aluminum cans. I was around in the early 90's, although I wasn't very active back then. I remember buying GLM for less than $3. For years RB (part of RIG now) was around $4-$5. That was the norm for many years. I for one don't think things will get that bad. I'm kind of getting bullish on some things, like DRQ at less than $12. If RDC gets back to $11 I'll be a buyer. Ditto for RIG in the mid-teens. Sharp