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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1014)	3/12/2003 5:39:19 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1210

Jim, Prechter also makes some good observations about how there is less vigor to this economy vs the 60s based upon capacity utilization, growth rate and many other indicators. His books are worth a read. His observations tie in nicely with the Austrians about the importance of saving and investing . We are seeing the results of capital consumption and malinvestment with corporate profits at a post war low of 2% of GDP . mike

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1014)	3/12/2003 6:15:07 PM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1210

so Prechter has a line in sand, above which he admits wrong His long term wave count, which had him Short in 1980 at $850 and briefly long in early 2001 at $250, then short again in January 2003 at $350, doesn't allow for print above $400. If it happens, his count is wrong and something else is happening. The way he applies Elliott, there are objective price levels that either confirm or invalidate wave counts. In other words, the probabilities (according to his analysis) suggest a drop to $200, but if $400 occurs first, new and very different probabilities are in control. A