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Non-Tech : The ENRON Scandal -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mephisto who wrote (4830)3/13/2003 12:44:07 PM
From: Skywatcher  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 5185
 
BUNKER DICK STILL TAKING MONEY FROM HALIBURTON....
Remember they just LOST NUCLEAR MATERIAL IN NIGERIA!
Cheney is still paid by Pentagon
contractor

Bush deputy gets up to $1m from firm with Iraq oil deal

Robert Bryce in Austin, Texas and Julian Borger in
Washington
Wednesday March 12, 2003
The Guardian

Halliburton, the Texas company which has been awarded the
Pentagon's contract to put out potential oil-field fires in Iraq and
which is bidding for postwar construction contracts, is still
making annual payments to its former chief executive, the
vice-president Dick Cheney.

The payments, which appear on Mr Cheney's 2001 financial
disclosure statement, are in the form of "deferred compensation"
of up to $1m (£600,000) a year.

When he left Halliburton in 2000 to become George Bush's
running mate, he opted not to receive his leaving payment in a
lump sum but instead have it paid to him over five years,
possibly for tax reasons.

An aide to the vice president said yesterday: "This is money
that Mr Cheney was owed by the corporation as part of his
salary for the time he was employed by Halliburton and which
was a fixed amount paid to him over time."

The aide said the payment was even insured so that it would not
be affected even if Halliburton went bankrupt, to ensure there
was no conflict of interest.

"Also, the vice president has nothing whatsoever to do with the
Pentagon bidding process," the aide added.

The company would not say how much the payments are. The
obligatory disclosure statement filled by all top government
officials says only that they are in the range of $100,000 and
$1m. Nor is it clear how they are calculated.

Halliburton is one of five large US corporations - the others are
the Bechtel Group, Fluor Corp, Parsons Corp, and the Louis
Berger Group - invited to bid for contracts in what may turn out
to be the biggest reconstruction project since the second world
war.

It is estimated to be worth up to $900m for the preliminary work
alone, such as rebuilding Iraq's hospitals, ports, airports and
schools.

The contract winners will be able to establish a presence in
post-Saddam Iraq that should give them an invaluable edge in
winning future contracts.

The defence department contract awarded to the Halliburton
subsidiary, Kellog, Brown & Root (KBR), to control oil fires if
Saddam Hussein sets the well heads alight, will put the
company in an excellent position to bid for huge contracts when
Iraq's oil industry is rehabilitated.

KBR has already benefited considerably from the "war on terror".
It has so far been awarded contracts worth nearly $33m to build
the detention camp at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba for al-Qaida
suspects.

Asked whether the payments to Mr Cheney represented a
conflict of interest, Halliburton's spokeswoman, Wendy Hall,
said: "We have been working as a government contractor since
the 1940s. Since this time, KBR has become the premier
provider of logistics and support services to all branches of the
military."

In the five years Mr Cheney was at the helm, Halliburton nearly
doubled the amount of business it did with the government to
$2.3bn. The company also more than doubled its political
contributions to $1.2m, overwhelmingly to Republican
candidates.

Mr Cheney sold most of his Halliburton shares when he left the
company, but retained stock options worth about $8m. He
arranged to pay any profits to charity.

· Robert Bryce is the author of Pipe Dreams: Greed, Ego,
Jealousy and the Death of Enron
CC



To: Mephisto who wrote (4830)3/17/2003 4:51:56 AM
From: Mephisto  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5185
 

George W. Queeg


By PAUL KRUGMAN
March 14, 2003

The New York Times

NEW YORK In ''The Caine Mutiny,'' it was the
business with the strawberries that finally
convinced the doubters that something was amiss
with the captain. Is foreign policy George W.
Bush's quart of strawberries?

Over the past few weeks there has been an
epidemic of epiphanies. A long list of pundits who
previously supported the Bush administration's
policy on Iraq have publicly changed their minds.
None of them quarrels with the goal. Who
wouldn't want to see Saddam Hussein
overthrown? But they are finally realizing that
Bush is the wrong man to do the job. And more
people than you would think - including a fair
number of people in the Treasury Department,
the State Department and, yes, the Pentagon -
don't just question the competence of Bush and
his inner circle; they believe that America's
leadership has lost touch with reality.

If that sounds harsh, consider the debacle of
recent diplomacy - a debacle brought on by
awesome arrogance and a vastly inflated sense of
self-importance. Bush's inner circle seems amazed
that the tactics that work so well on journalists
and Democrats don't work on the rest of the
world.


They've made promises, oblivious to the fact that
most countries don't trust their word. They've
made threats. They've done the
aura-of-inevitability thing - how many times now
have administration officials claimed to have lined
up the necessary votes in the Security Council?
They've warned other countries that if they oppose
America's will they are objectively pro-terrorist.
Yet still the world balks.

And to what end has Bush alienated all of
America's most valuable allies? (And I mean all:
Tony Blair may be with us, but British public
opinion is now virulently anti-Bush.) The original
reasons given for making Iraq an immediate
priority have collapsed. No evidence has ever
surfaced of the supposed link with Al Qaeda or of
an active nuclear program. At this point it is clear
that deposing Saddam has become an obsession,
detached from any real rationale.


What really has the insiders panicked, however, is
the irresponsibility of Bush and his team, their
almost childish unwillingness to face up to
problems that they don't feel like dealing with
right now.

I've talked in this column about the
administration's eerie passivity in the face of a
stalling economy and an exploding budget deficit:
Reality isn't allowed to intrude on the obsession
with long-run tax cuts.


That same ''don't bother me, I'm busy'' attitude is
driving foreign policy experts, inside and outside
the government, to despair.

Need I point out that North Korea, not Iraq, is the
clear and present danger? Kim Jong Il's nuclear
program isn't a rumor or a forgery; it's an
incipient bomb assembly line. Yet the
administration insists that it's a mere ''regional''
crisis, and refuses even to talk to Kim.

We all hope that the war with Iraq is a swift
victory, with a minimum of civilian casualties. But
more and more people now realize that even if all
goes well at first, it will have been the wrong war,
fought for the wrong reasons - and there will be a
heavy price to pay.


nytimes.com



To: Mephisto who wrote (4830)3/17/2003 4:55:38 AM
From: Mephisto  Respond to of 5185
 
Why the U.S. Inspires Scorn

Other nations, and especially the Arab world, fear the start of an American empire.

By Tyler Marshall and David Lamb
Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
March 16, 2003

DOHA, Qatar -- On what looks like the eve of war in Iraq, there is evidence of a vast gap between the way the United States and
the rest of the world view the crisis.

What Americans see largely as a campaign to eliminate one Middle Eastern dictator -- Saddam Hussein -- is viewed by many in
Europe and especially the Arab world as nothing less than a watershed in global affairs.

They worry that America's self-declared right to launch preemptive wars, its willingness to dismiss the United Nations, to shuck
allies and make plans to invade and occupy another country -- all amid talk of remaking the Mideast -- are the beginning of the
end of the post-World War II order and the start of an American Imperium.

Indeed, for a growing number of observers outside the United States, the central issue in the crisis is no longer Iraq or Hussein. It
is America and how to deal with its disproportionate strength as a world power.

What the Bush administration describes as a war of liberation is widely seen abroad -- even by those who condemn the Iraqi
president -- as a war of occupation.

"A simple truth has been withheld from the American people," said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute in
Washington. "In the eyes of most Arabs, America lacks the legitimacy and moral authority to impose itself on Iraq."

Added Sabah Mukhtar, the Iraqi-born head of the Arab Lawyers Assn. in London: "Arabs and Muslims are just like anyone else in
the world. They don't like invaders, even if they come as liberators. There's a serious belief the United States wants to redraw the
map of the Middle East to favor Israel."

Even President Bush's announced decision to unveil a so-called road map for Middle East peace has been dismissed in the region
as little more than a public relations trick -- a last-ditch effort to build support for war among Arabs.

"The timing will make people across the Arab world look at it as part of the preparation for war," said Hamad Kawari, Qatar's
ambassador to the United Nations in the 1980s and, later, to the United States. "They won't take it seriously."

Ironically, the 1991 Persian Gulf War was also seen as a watershed in world affairs -- but a very different one. As the first major
conflict of the post-Cold War era, it unfolded against a backdrop of Soviet-American diplomatic cooperation, a rejuvenated U.N. and
a broad, American-led coalition of nations. The era was one of high expectations, in which America, standing triumphant amid the
wreckage of communism, perhaps was never more admired, never had more friends.

The spirit of that moment is frozen in a photo that hangs today in Kawari's Doha office. It shows him standing proudly with envoys
from nearly 30 other nations, Arab and non-Arab, all gathered around a smiling President George H.W. Bush in the White House
Rose Garden. The faces represented both the coalition of partners Bush had assembled to roll back Hussein's invasion of Kuwait
and the larger hope for a new age.

"In 1990, the case [against Hussein] was very clear, and President Bush succeeded to build it," Kawari said. "I think the current
president didn't succeed in building a case that there is a threat. It is not a war of liberation -- it is a war for [Hussein's] head."

If Bush has indeed failed, the price of that failure is easy to see: America's actions -- and its stated intentions -- have rarely elicited
such disquiet or such suspicion. In this part of the world, where so many countries joined the United States to confront Hussein
12 years ago, there is neither enthusiasm nor a perceived need to attack him again today.

Dogu Ergil, a professor of international relations at Ankara University in the Turkish capital, offered what he called the prevailing
view of Hussein within the Turkish leadership, including the armed forces and the foreign policy establishment.

"Saddam's teeth and nails have been pulled out," he said. "He's not dangerous anymore except to his own people. He is a paper
tiger. Iraq is not threatening anyone in the region."

Even in Muslim countries that are helping U.S. military forces, the public is ambivalent, and policymakers admit privately that
they worry far more about the impact of unchecked American actions than about Hussein.

In the years since the Gulf War, admiration of the U.S. has turned to fear and resentment.

Consider:


In Doha, just a few miles from the U.S. Central Command base where Gen. Tommy Franks stands ready to run a war against Iraq,
a theater audience made up mainly of Qataris breaks into applause as the leading actor reacts to television scenes of the
collapsing World Trade Center towers with the words: "Americans go around punishing everyone. Now it's time to let them feel
something."

A follow-up line -- "The boys who flew those planes, now they were real men" -- draws even louder applause, along with whistles of
approval.

In Egypt, one of the largest recipients of American foreign aid, a political cartoon in the respected national daily Al Ahram depicts
the Statue of Liberty using her torch as a flamethrower, its fire covering the world with dark, forbidding clouds. In Cairo, a cab
driver politely asks an American to get out of his taxi when he learns her nationality.

Also in Egypt, a singer cum political commentator named Shaaban Abdel-Rahim cuts a wildly popular new song titled "The Attack
on Iraq," whose lyrics include these lines: "Since the twin towers, we've been living in a dilemma. / If one thousand died then, how
many more thousands have died as a result. / After Afghanistan, here comes the turn of Iraq, and no one knows who is next." The
song is a special favorite of the younger set and plays hourly on Egypt's version of MTV.

In Saudi Arabia, where the U.S. bases large numbers of strike aircraft, the country's national airline has canceled daily
summertime flights to Orlando, Fla., because of reduced interest in trips to Walt Disney World. Saudis say they are discouraged
by visa hassles, restricted stays and the possibility of facing interrogations by U.S. authorities. Meanwhile, at home, a steady
stream of anti-American rhetoric spews from Saudi mosques, much of it denouncing America's planned involvement in Iraq.

Because of such public sentiment, Arab nations that do support U.S. military efforts do their best to play down that support.

In the small gulf emirates, such as Qatar, many locals say they don't support aggression against Hussein, but they accept it
because in such a politically volatile region, tiny, energy-rich states need America's protection and its markets for survival.

Several factors have tainted Bush administration efforts to sell the case for attacking Hussein in Arab countries. Israeli attacks on
Palestinian civilians beamed nightly into the region have left many Arabs convinced that the U.S. operates by a double standard,
declining to stop Israel yet wanting to attack Hussein. The gulf of suspicion between the U.S. and the Muslim world since the
Sept. 11 attacks has added to the difficulty.

Still, critics say, a series of Bush administration blunders ended up making a difficult task impossible.

In 1991, specialists note, the goal of U.S. intervention never wavered: Free Kuwait. Twelve years later, the Bush administration has
attempted to justify military action with a number of arguments -- ranging from Hussein's alleged stocks of weapons of mass
destruction to terrorist links to human rights violations -- with marginal results.

These varied messages have only blurred America's motives, according to regional analysts.

But administration critics argue that it is ambitious talk of remaking the Middle East and hints of toppling leaders in other
countries that have most frightened many of America's friends.

"I can think of many good reasons for taking ... [Hussein] out, but I can't think of any worse approach than the one we've
followed," said Nicholas Veliotes, a former U.S. ambassador to Egypt and Jordan. "We've poisoned the well we drink from. We
didn't need to announce preemptive strikes. We didn't need to talk about democratizing the entire Arab world. We didn't have to
walk with a swagger.

"We've alienated our allies in the Arab world and elsewhere," he added. "Now we're looking around for help, and guess what? It
isn't there."

Compared with the 29 nations that contributed military forces in 1991, just two other countries -- Britain and Australia -- have so
far joined U.S. troops prepared to attack Iraq.

The depth of public feeling in the Arab world against an attack on Iraq has observers already worried about postwar fallout.
Regional specialists note that Osama bin Laden's campaign of terror began as an attempt to drive American forces from the Arab
world -- forces that settled there after the Gulf War.

"What's going on now is a legacy of the 1991 war," Kawari said. "Now we can only ask what the long-term consequences of this war
will be."

Marshall reported from Doha and Lamb from Cairo. Times staff writers Richard Boudreaux in Ankara, Turkey; Kim Murphy in
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; and Jailan Zayan in Doha contributed to this report.

latimes.com.



To: Mephisto who wrote (4830)3/17/2003 5:24:40 AM
From: Mephisto  Respond to of 5185
 
Napoleon's Blunders
A tale of preemptive strikes gone wrong

latimes.com


By Margaret Atwood, Margaret Atwood won the Booker Prize for
her novel "The Blind Assassin." Her latest book, "Oryx and Crake,"
will be published in May 2003.

TORONTO -- In my high school music appreciation
class, we listened to Tchaikovsky's "1812 Overture".
We liked it, because there was stuff we could identify:
Cannons boomed, bells rang, national anthems
resounded and there was a satisfying uproar at the end.

The English -- being English -- have since produced a
version performed by sheep and chickens. Generals
screw up, their fiascoes get made into art and then the
art gets made into fiascoes. Such is the march of
progress.

We were told that Tchaikovsky's piece celebrated
Napoleon's retreat from Moscow, but we weren't told
who Napoleon was or what he was doing in Moscow in
the first place. So, in case you had a similarly vague
musical appreciation experience, here's the deep
background.

Napoleon was a brilliant soldier who rose like a bubble
during a time of unrest and bloodletting, won many
battles and was thus able -- like Julius Caesar -- to grab
near-absolute power. He got hold of Italy and Austria
and Prussia and Spain. He replaced the French Republic
with an emperor -- himself -- thus giving rise to much
impressive furniture with eagles and columns on it. He
also brought in a legal code, still somewhat admired
today.

He had laudable motives, or so his spin-doctoring went: He wanted peace and
justice and European unity. But he thought it would be liberating for other countries
to have their stifling religious practices junked and their political systems replaced
with one like his. To this end, he scrapped the kings of other countries and created
new kings, who happened to be members of his own family.

Which brings me to Napoleon's two biggest mistakes. The first was Spain.
Napoleon got Spain treacherously. He had an agreement whereby he could march
through it on the way to Portugal, which was bothering him by interfering with his
sanctions against trading with the British. Once his armies were in Spain he took
the place over, whereupon his forces engaged in their usual practices of
priest-pestering, church-looting and removing sparkly things and artworks to other
locations for safekeeping.

Napoleon's big mistake was underestimating the religious feelings of the staunchly
Roman Catholic Spanish. He thought they'd embrace "liberation," but it seems they
had a curious attachment to their own beliefs. The British annoyed Napoleon in
Spain by winning battles against him, but the real defeat of the French was brought
about by widespread guerrilla resistance.

Things got very nasty on both sides: The Spaniards cut French throats, the French
roasted Spaniards alive, the Spaniards sawed a French general in two. The Spanish
population won -- although at enormous cost -- because you can kill some of the
people all of the time and you can kill all of the people some of the time but you
can't kill all of the people all of the time. When a whole population hates you, and
hates you fanatically, it's difficult to rule.

Present leaders, take note: Never underestimate the power of religious fervor.
Also: Your version of what's good for them may not match theirs.

Napoleon's second big mistake was invading Russia. There's no one clear
explanation for this. He didn't need to do it. Russia wasn't attacking him, though it
had in the past and might in the future. Maybe he just wanted to add it to his set. In
any case, he invaded. When his horse stumbled as he crossed the Dnieper -- a bad
omen -- a voice said from the shadows: "A Roman would have turned back."

Warfare at that time meant forcing your opponent to stand and fight, resulting in
victory on one side or the other. But the Russians merely retreated, burning crops
as they went and leading Napoleon deeper and deeper into the same huge Russian
landmass and awful Russian weather that also defeated Hitler.

When Napoleon reached Moscow, he thought maybe he'd "won," but the Russians
burned Moscow and retreated again. Napoleon hung around the cinders, expecting
the czar to sue for peace, but no message arrived. Thus the retreat, the "1812
Overture" and the decimation of the Grand Army. As others have learned since,
it's very hard to defeat an enemy who never turns up.

The occupation of Japan after the Second World War has been proposed as a
model for Iraq. It's not a helpful comparison.

First, the religious fervor of the Japanese soldier was attached to the emperor, who
thus had the power to order a surrender. Iraq will have no such single authority.
Second, Japan is an island: No Russian-style, Afghan-style retreat was possible.
Third, the Japanese had no neighbors who shared their religious views and might
aid them. They had only two choices: death or democracy.

Iraq on the other hand has many coreligionist neighbors who will sympathize with
it, however repugnant they've previously found Hussein. A foreign occupation --
not immediately, but in the long run -- is less likely to resemble MacArthur in Japan
than Napoleon in Spain.

Now you know about the "1812 Overture". That moment -- after which Napoleon
plummeted and the French Empire dissolved -- was the hinge on which the rest of
the 19th century turned, as the First World War was the hinge for the 20th. When
a door swings open, you never know what will come through it. And as Napoleon
himself believed, the fortunes of war, being notoriously unpredictable, are ruled by
the Goddess of Chance.

This article also ran in the British newspaper the Independent.



To: Mephisto who wrote (4830)3/20/2003 11:56:55 PM
From: Mephisto  Respond to of 5185
 


Muskets and Nukes: the Patterns of
Proliferation

March 16, 2003

latimes.com


By Jared Diamond, Jared Diamond is a professor of geography and
environmental health sciences at UCLA. His book "Guns, Germs, and
Steel: The Fates of Human Societies" won a Pulitzer Prize in 1998.

Ever since bows and arrows came on the scene 15,000
years ago, the spread of military technology has shaped
the nature of conflicts. Some new technologies rapidly
became commonplace; others failed to spread or were
successfully banned. The historical lessons to be learned
from weapons proliferation are useful to reflect on as
we figure out how to deal with North Korea.

Let's start by considering an episode in New Zealand
history known as the Musket Wars. New Zealand's
original inhabitants, a Polynesian people known as the
Maori, possessed stone and wooden weapons but lacked
guns. Maori tribes were chronically embroiled in fierce
warfare with one another. But that warfare did not
produce mass slaughters because all tribes were equally
matched in their weapons, which were useful only for
fighting at close quarters.

Those limitations began to change as European traders
started arriving in New Zealand in the early 19th
century. Until 1815, the Napoleonic Wars meant that
Europeans needed all the weapons they produced. But
after Napoleon's surrender, a surplus of guns became
available for other purposes, such as selling to Maoris.

By 1818, the Nga Puhi tribe at the north end of New
Zealand, where the first European trading stations had
been set up, had acquired enough muskets to start using
them in battle. This began a period of carnage that
lasted until 1835. Intertribal musket wars killed about one-quarter of the Maori
population -- more people than New Zealand would lose to trench warfare and
poison gas in World War I.

At first, tribes with guns used them to settle accounts with neighboring traditional
enemies who had the misfortune still to be gunless. Then, as the Maoris realized
the power of their new weapons, gun-possessing tribes began traveling up to 1,000
miles to attack tribes with which they had no quarrel, just to show off power and
capture slaves. Tribes without guns desperately tried to acquire them, because
their survival was now dependent on firepower. Some tribes got the weapons,
mounted successful defenses and went on to become attackers themselves. Other
tribes were either wiped out or enslaved.

Then something strange happened. As guns spread, casualties declined.
Eventually, when all surviving tribes were armed, there were no more easy
victories, and Maori warfare, though still chronic, settled back down to something
like its previous level.

The Musket Wars illustrate the potential instability of a situation in which a potent
new technology is unevenly distributed. The wars began when only a few tribes
had guns, and they ended when all had them. If nukes follow a similar course,
North Korea's going nuclear could trigger a desperate scramble by other countries
to acquire the weapons in self-defense.

But history also tells us that the spread of military technology isn't inevitable. Some
innovations didn't proliferate; they remained restricted or were abandoned. A
prime recent example is nuclear weapons themselves. They have been developed
and openly tested by only five world powers (the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and
France) and two regional powers (India and Pakistan). Only one other regional
power (Israel) is believed to have built them secretly and to possess them today.
To the pleasant surprise of those of us old enough to remember the Cold War,
nuclear weapons have never been used since their debut in August 1945.

There have been other cases in which new weapons failed to become widespread.
During World War I, the German army introduced poisonous chlorine, phosgene
and mustard gases. In each case, the allies first expressed moral revulsion, then
hastened to deploy the same gas themselves. After the war, by mutual agreement,
poison gas was banned. Its sole subsequent use was by Iraq, with devastating
effect, against Iran and against its own Kurdish minority. A naval arms race was
interrupted by the Washington Treaty of 1922, when the countries with the largest
navies agreed to limit the size and number of their battleships and aircraft carriers.
They maintained that agreement until a new naval arms race broke out in the
1930s. Highly destructive, soft-nosed dum dum bullets, which expand on contact,
were used only briefly before being banned and have not been reintroduced. Japan,
which acquired guns in 1543 and by 1600 had more and better firearms than any
other country, subsequently renounced guns unilaterally for some time thereafter.

Several reasons are at the core of why some but not other technologies spread.
Poison gas was found not to provide a military advantage in World War I: English
and French chemical factories could make it as easily as could German factories,
and shifts in wind direction often blew it back over its users' own lines. In contrast,
Iraq calculated correctly that Iran lacked a chemical industry capable of rapid
response. Battleship fleets were extremely expensive to build and maintain, so saw
little actual use in World War I, and the major naval powers were only too pleased
to be spared the expense of them as long as their likely opponents were equally
abstemious. Japan's samurai hated guns because they allowed clumsy peasants to
kill a graceful sword-wielding samurai. For several reasons, nuclear weapons have
spread slowly and have not been used since their initial horrible debut. Nuclear
powers have understood the importance of nonproliferation. Mutual deterrence has
worked. And nuclear weapons are expensive -- both morally and financially.

History also illustrates that a technology can be destabilizing even if it rarely or
never sees action, like the battleships at the core of the arms race that culminated
in World War I. Often, the mere possession of military power and dangerous
weapons by one side is enough to make an opponent back down without a fight, as
happened when Hitler's Germany bloodlessly took over Austria in 1938 and
Czechoslovakia in 1939, and when Czechoslovakia yielded to the Soviet Union in
1968.

What will happen when (I wish I could say "if") North Korea tests a nuke? It's
tempting to say that since eight countries already have nuclear weapons that
they've refrained from using, a ninth shouldn't cause too much worry. But the ninth
country differs fundamentally from the first eight. The Big Five have never used
their nukes against each other, because their leaders have had enough maturity to
recognize a standoff, and to wish to avoid the certainty of mass casualties of their
own citizens in a retaliatory response. Everyone understands that India and
Pakistan would use their nukes "only" against each other, and that Israel's nukes
are intended "only" as a weapon of last resort against an attack by Arab neighbors.
North Korea differs in its history of provocative behavior, unpredictability and
willingness to inflict great suffering on its own citizens.

It would be rational to assume that North Korea would brandish its nukes only as a
bargaining chip to extract concessions, but we can't assume rationality with Kim
Jong Il. The mere existence of North Korean nukes could be destabilizing: as a
grave direct threat to South Korea, Japan and the U.S.; as an example to many
other states presently without nukes but with the capacity to build them; and as a
likely source of nuclear weapons for sale to even more dangerous buyers. It could
unleash a new kind of Musket Wars.

Should the world act preemptively to stop North Korea? We can't know for sure
what it would do with nuclear weapons, or whether other states will follow its
example. Our decision about how to respond must rest on uncertainties. North
Korean nuclear weapons are a much bigger threat to world stability than Saddam
Hussein's chemical and biological arms, and a threat equal to that of the nuclear
weapons he hoped to build with his reactor. In retrospect, we all are fortunate that
Israel preemptively destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor. Conversely, England and
France could have easily and cheaply prevented World War II by acting
preemptively when Hitler militarized the Rhineland in 1936. As British and French
inaction then illustrates, abstaining from striking preemptively is not morally
virtuous when it leads to something infinitely worse.

So a case can be made for preemptively taking out North Korea's nuclear
weapons facilities. But such action would almost certainly trigger a North Korean
conventional attack on Seoul and on U.S. forces just across the DMZ, with
unpreventable casualties estimated at 100,000 in the first week. Perhaps the North
Koreans really are just blustering and just want to be bought off with food
shipments. Perhaps they are serious. To balance these risks and decide on a
course of action will require success on the part of America's leaders in achieving
broad consensus among Americans and among the world's other peoples. Alas,
those successes have conspicuously escaped our leaders in confronting Iraq. Can
they be more persuasive about North Korea?