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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (20209)	3/13/2003 4:54:03 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 206145

This excerpt from the "Annual Energy Outlook 2003 With Projections to 2025" from EIA seems wildly unrealistic. Driven by growth in natural gas demand, domestic natural gas production is projected to increase from 19.5 to 25.1 trillion cubic feet between 2001 and 2020, an average rate of 1.3 percent per year. Domestic production is increasingly dependent on unconventional and more costly conventional resources in both the onshore and offshore. Projected production in 2020 is 3.4 trillion cubic feet lower than in AEO2002 because of a reduction in the assumed potential of inferred natural gas reserves, updates to the economics of production, and reduced expectations for technology improvement for unconventional gas. After 2020, domestic production in AEO2003 increases noticeably with the projected completion of an Alaskan pipeline. Total domestic natural gas production reaches 26.8 trillion cubic feet by 2025 in AEO2003. eia.doe.gov A couple of years ago they were saying that domestic production will increase 40% by 2020. Now they are saying it will increase 30% by 2020 and 37% by 2025. NG appears to be topping out right now and where will we get 30% more in 2020? They are talking about strictly domestic production, no Canada, no LNG and no stranded Arctic gas. I wonder whether the same denial of reality existed in 1970 when crude oil topped out. John