To: Don Green who wrote (85829 ) 3/14/2003 12:42:02 PM From: Don Green Respond to of 93625 NAND Flash Market Comes of Age, Semico Says By Alex Romanelli -- 3/12/2003 Electronic News The NAND flash market has come of age, according to Jim Handy, director of nonvolatile memory services, Semico Research Corp. Semico has published its findings for the 2002 flash market, and for the first time separated NAND flash and NOR flash statistics. 2002 saw $2.25 billion of NAND flash sold worldwide, with nearly the entire market divided between Samsung, Toshiba, SanDisk and Hitachi. “The NAND market is really taking off,” Handy said. “NAND has really come of age, it is shipping in good volume. $2.2 billion last year was bigger than anyone was really expecting it to be. That was mostly on the back of digital cameras. The mp3 player market got extremely soft after Napster had a successful finding against it.” Samsung achieved $1 billion in NAND flash sales, taking 44 percent market share. Toshiba followed behind with $668 million, or 30 percent market share. Toshiba’s memory output has caused some confusion in the industry, resulting in wildly different flash estimates and analysis. For example, rival analyst firm iSupply Corp. reported a similar size 2002 flash market, but with very different weightings attached to each supplier. iSuppli said Toshiba sold $842 million of flash in 2002. “Toshiba ships a significant amount of Rambus DRAM,” Handy said. “They like to talk about their memory revenues and its up to companies like us to figure out what kind of memory they’re talking about. Toshiba tells the world they don’t make DRAMs, but they’re still doing significant business in Rambus DRAM.” Intel Corp. dominated the NOR flash space, shipping almost three times as much flash as its nearest competitor, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Semico pegged Intel at holding 37 percent of the NOR market with $2.1 billion shipped, and AMD at 13 percent of the market with $710 million shipped. The total 2002 NOR flash market was $7.8 billion. Overall, Intel, Samsung and AMD made up the top three flash suppliers. During Intel’s recent mid-quarter update, it tightened its revenue forecast to between $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion. Intel cited a decrease in flash unit shipments due to an increase in its flash prices. However, Handy was a little skeptical of Intel losing flash market share. “If their market share dropped as significantly as all that, I certainly would have heard about it from one of the other participants in the market,” Handy said. “Those participants are saying business is picking up, but that’s as far as they go. “The cell phone market has not been running at quote the rate people expected in December,” he added. “January was okay, it had pretty good growth, but February apparently had pretty disappointing growth. That’s probably more what’s causing problems for Intel rather than any market share loss due to their pricing. However, Intel is going to through some level of angst as they try to pull off a price increase. It is very likely they’re going to look at that as a possible cause for having problems.”