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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (57341)	3/13/2003 11:40:41 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

From: SirRealist Thursday, Mar 13, 2003 10:22 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 85345 Market call: next resistance points are 1353, 1358 and 1364. Even if we were to dip afterward, breaking above 1364 would be a bullish indicator. Friday or Monday, whenever the dip comes, support exists between 1325-1330 and 1298-1304. A theoretical scenario would have us test support and, unless we get a positive UN vote Monday that sets a different deadline, the war rally could begin there. Charting that scenario could send us as high as.... 1600 by April 15th, when Intel leads the parade of biggies reporting. Then it's time to lookout below... OTOH, if we blow past 1365 tomorrow, the next resistance area would be 1388-1393. The different indicators suggest: -- the OSX may be bottoming here.... or maybe not. If oil spikes upward now, it's hard to imagine the COMP can rise with it. The OSX has been blocked at 93 three times in 3-1/2 months, and has been supported at 77 three times in the past 5 months. Sitting at 82.59, look for breaks of 80 and 77 as signals of the OSX heading to test the 68-70 level where it's found support several times in the past 17 months. -- COMP shows the greatest resistance of all at 1390. Until that falls, any bullish projections are short-term and could be nothing more than a 3-4 day short squeeze(tomorrow would be day #3) -- the dollar roared today, running from 97.55 Tuesday, from 98.16 today to 99.75. Tomorrow, 100 and 101 provide resistance, and 101.5-102 is practically impossible to break. It appears likely we'll test that within 6 trading days. More than any other indicator, the dollar suggests this rally will be short term, though the OSX and several natural gas suplliers are also giving off some similar signals. Thus, the only reliable indicator is the COMP itself. My best guess says to view 1325/30 and 1300 as the two support points and odds are good that at least 1325/30 will be tested Friday or Monday, before upper tests can come. Thus, the indicators as a whole suggest 1365 will be tomorrow's resistance point, Monday will dip back to 1325/30, and Tues/Wednesday will test that top resistance point, based on investor belief that we're going to war. I'd look for a peak of 1385-1390 on Tuesday or Wednesday. If this plays out, you're better off limiting your risk at that point by going to 100% cash. I just don't think we can break that level. And the thing that concerns me the most is diagnosing what could possibly motivate such action. If the UN Security Council shoots down the US initiative Monday, all deadlines are off, war will be imminent, and the anticipatory war rally would resume. Four events could stop that rally: 1) The war starts and within 2 days, Hussein surrenders, or is overthrown, or goes into exile. 2) The war never starts because one of those things happens. 3) The war starts, Hussein ignites the oil wells or counters in a devastating way that knocks the lustre off the whole concept of war. 4) Terrorists attack the US mainland. Yes, two of the four possibilities would be great news, even if it kills the market rally. But the other two suck bad. In short, don't get bullish before 1400 is passed, trade carefully, and above all, keep your life priorities above the monetary ones. One week from today, way more than our market considerations is likely to be our primary source of attention. And even with the positive outcomes, we near the influence of April's earnings, so even falling oil prices guarantees nothing. My charts indicate two possible NASDAQ levels by April 15.... either 1600 or 1150. Unless 1400 breaks next week, the lower number remains more likely, with a late May low nearing 1000 on NASDAQ.