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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: verdad who wrote (127550)	3/14/2003 7:17:29 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 152472

verdad, << don't you believe that today's share price will only increase as NOK pays more royalties? >> No, not appreciably, at least as that applies to CDMA 2000 royalty revenue, because of the offset of foregone revenue from chipsets. I believe that today's share price will increase as a whole new high margin royalty revenue stream opens up from the payment of royalties by NOK, ERICY, MOT, SI, ALA, TXN,and NEC, etc. for 3GSM WCDMA. That is why I maintain my long position in QCOM. I happen to be a little more (perhaps a lot more) conservative than other participating members of this and other Qualcomm boards relative to how I perceive the pace of that growth. << in your humble opinion, wasn't QCOM's $800 per share price based on a business model that assumed virtually 'royalties only' revenue at some point? >> Who's humble? <g> QCOM's $800 per share price (or more realistically $720 to $740, since it was only at $800 for a fleeting second) was based on irrational exuberance and even at $500 before Walter Piecyk's nutball $1000 projection on December 29, 1999, it was based on irrational exuberance ... but yes 'royalties only' or at least 'royalties primarily' revenue, and royalties unrealistically imagined earlier and quicker than anticipated, were the foundation for that irrational exuberance. << Or do you feel the share price might be severely out of sync with timing of cash flows at some point? >> It obviously has been in the past has it not? Best, - Eric -