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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (85853)	3/14/2003 3:12:29 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

DDR prices rise, but is the increase sustainable? By Nam Hyung Kim, Semiconductor Business News Mar 14, 2003 (3:29 AM) URL: siliconstrategies.com The following column was provided by Nam Hyung Kim, a senior analyst with iSuppli Corp., an El Segundo, Calif.-based market research firm. U.S. spot market prices for Double Data Rate (DDR) SDRAM stabilized this week. However, the increases were spurred by speculative buying among PC OEMs and large memory module makers, rather than by a real increase in end-user demand. Because of this, iSuppli does not believe the increases are sustainable, and that prices could drop again in the near future. For the second week in a row, spot market pricing this week increased for both 128-Mbit, PC-266 DDR SDRAM in the 16-Mbit by 8 configuration and for 256-Mbit, PC-266 DDR SDRAM in the 32-Mbit by 8 configuration. Pricing for the 128-Mbit DDR rose by 6 percent to $1.85, while the 256-Mbit increased by 1 percent to $3.15. The increase comes as great news for DRAM suppliers that had been building DDR inventory since December. However, neither the DRAM suppliers nor the PC OEMs are expressing any optimism about present DDR demand. Rather, the buying activity appears to have been spurred by speculation that Intel Corp.'s new Springdale core logic chipset and its Centrino mobile microprocessor will boost DRAM sales in the future. Buying also was prompted by the general perception that DDR prices had hit bottom during the last week of February. On the supply side, prices also were boosted by moves by DRAM makers to slow the rate of increase of their production in the first quarter. For example, Samsung Electronics, the number-one DRAM supplier, will reduce its DRAM unit production by 1 percentage point in the first quarter, due to its migration of manufacturing resources from DRAM to flash memory. However, the present pricing surge is primarily driven by speculative buying, a force that cannot guarantee a sustained price recovery. Because of this, unless there is a solid rise in demand, DRAM prices could drop again. This is eliciting concern among spot traders about a possible price decline at the end of March. Inventories are still tight for most tier-one DRAM suppliers because OEM buyers and large module manufacturers ordered a large volume of DRAM starting at the beginning of March. Suppliers' inventory levels should be watched carefully from now on. Some tier-one DRAM suppliers are trying to maintain or increase April contract prices by leveraging recent spot market price increases. Price recovery driven by speculation on future demand is not sustainable. Until iSuppli gains better visibility on future DRAM demand, we remain skeptical about the prospects for a long-term price recovery.

To: Don Green who wrote (85853)	3/14/2003 4:08:57 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

If the ALJ refuses to toss this illegitimate ruling by Timony it will b a signal that he has the same agenda as Timony. Rambus will go tot the full commission and if they can't get justice there they will go to the federal court. I don't see Rambus letting this issue pass without full opposition. This will cause some problems for the FTC since they are on a tight time schedule- but so what? If Rambus loses the FTC case (which they may because of the resemblance of the FTC case to Va) they will appeal to the Federal court and will with high probability prevail. A loss at the FTC will drive the stock to $10/share temporarily. A win at the FTC will push the stock to 20-30 per share. An Appeal of an FTC loss when accepted by the Federal court will drive the stock back into the 12-17 area. If there is a win at the FTC then I would expect one or more of the infringers to license if they are allowed to by Rambus. Rambus can just refuse to license these companies and go for damages. Regardless of the outcome of FTC case, Rambus can also sue these infringing companies for antitrust and conspiracy. If they do they will likely be able to get IFX, Mu and Hynix on RICO charges. They should be ripe for suit once the DOJ grand jury is finished. That is my best guess.

To: Don Green who wrote (85853)	3/16/2003 8:06:05 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 93625

Don: IFX is asking the circut for a review on the part where all 3 judges were in agreement. Just my assumption the odds favor rmbs on this and the full review will be denied. Time wise this can take 3 months (may be less and depends on the workload of the circut). If there is a full review it can take another year. Right now unless we have some war rally I see rmbs drifting towards support @ the breakout area of $9.75 (it may not reach this point or it may spike down thru it, time will tell). If we have a full circut review the stock can break down thru $9.75. We are getting ahead as the 50ema just held on the recent drop. So first support is $12, then $9.75. On the upside we have resistance @ $13.5 and $16.5. Right now I'm on the sidelines waiting for a break one way or the other.