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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (1467)	3/15/2003 9:02:35 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48733

Dollar to step down ahead of Saddam english.pravda.ru

To: Les H who wrote (1467)	3/15/2003 9:04:25 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 48733

War Diary: Saturday, March 15, 2003 Mar 15, 2003 There will be a summit in the Azores on Sunday, and the participants will not be the antagonists, but the allies. It will not be just about war plans; it will include diplomacy battles. The leaders of the United States, Great Britain and Spain will meet to discuss something -- what that something is, is not really clear. The deadline in the proposed resolution that never made it to a vote in the U.N. Security Council arrives Monday. A decision will have to be made as to how to proceed. This meeting would not be taking place if there were an agreement among the three allies. It would not be taking place if only Spain were in disagreement. And Spain would not be present if this were about military matters -- that would concern only U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The only conclusion to be drawn from this is that the United States and Britain are having sharp disagreements on how to proceed. To resolve their differences, an emergency summit has been called with Spain included, which has been doing some of the heavy diplomatic lifting for the other two powers. Proceeding on logic, it would seem that the British really want to introduce their resolution to the Security Council including an extended date and six things that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein must accomplish. The allies understand that a resolution probably would be vetoed, but they also understand they can get nine votes if Washington is flexible on a deadline. The problem is: The United States cannot be flexible about time. We have discussed the weather constantly, but the fact is temperatures are rising, and it is going to get hotter. Washington is not going to wait another month, because it can't militarily. If it waits a month, it may as well wait six or seven months until cooler weather returns. However, even if this were possible militarily, it is simply not possible politically. Blair has political problems in his party; Bush is going to have serious political problems in his party if Hussein remains in power through the summer. It would be six months dominated by Iraq, and Bush can no more afford that than Blair can afford to just charge ahead. Something has to give in their positions, and it has to give on Sunday. We wonder if Spanish President Jose Maria Aznar will be there as referee. Meanwhile rumors continue to swirl about initiatives by the Russians to persuade Hussein to agree to London's six points and also leave office. Hussein is prepared to agree to the six requirements or even 20. He might even be persuaded to resign. What he is not willing to do is comply with any of these clauses, however many, or give up power. Bush is afraid of giving Hussein room to maneuver. The gesture itself would be convincing to those who hope Hussein is acting in good faith. That might, at this point, include Blair. Blair could be looking for an exit from what has become an increasingly untenable position within his party. If the six-point proposal is tabled and Hussein accepts, Blair might seize hold of the moment to declare victory and go home. Bush doesn't want to see this happen. Therefore, Bush should not want to see this resolution introduced. There are too many chances for difficulty, too few opportunities for success. It is likely, in our opinion, that Bush is going to deliver an ultimatum, not only to the Iraqis but to Blair as well. His position likely will be that it is time to terminate the diplomatic process, give Hussein a deadline and go to war. Hints of the ultimatum to Blair surfaced this week in U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's "slip," when he warned the British that Washington was going forward with or without the British. Blair's problem is that he wants out of the war to save his political life, but the manner in which he gets out of the war will determine whether he will have a life. Having acted as a toady to the United States, by the lights of his critics, to have Washington simply dismiss him as an irrelevancy would not enhance his posture. What he needs to demonstrate is that he has a degree of control over the United States. He needs to be seen engineering his own rescue. At this point, however, it is a zero-sum game; Blair's rescue is Bush's demise. Two men, with their political hides on the line, will meet in the Azores. One wants to continue the diplomatic game, the other badly needs to terminate it. Ultimately, Bush has the stronger hand. He can go to war without the British, leaving Blair twisting in the wind. This is crunch time, the time when basic decisions have to be made in an environment where not everyone can win.