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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (68581)	3/16/2003 11:21:26 AM
From: steve from ihub	Respond to of 209892

There is a lot of discussions on the various boards about the vix index. the 1993-1997 period the vix traded between 10-20 with spikes to 30 on big selloffs. the 1998-present period the vix traded between 20-35 with spikes above 50. What i feel is going on is a return to the norm. i belive we are heading back to the 20-35 type range. at this stage of the bear, i think we are done with the vix spikes to 50 or higher for at least the next year. i wouldnt be surprised to see a 20 reading later this year. not because we went into rally mode, but because i envision more of a trading range going forward. there are rallies and selloffs within the range but over the course of the year, the vix will trend down. As far as bottoms go, it is and has been my opinion for months that we werent going to have this massive capitulative bottom that so many seek. We should see a test of 1400 nas and 875 spx on this rally over the next two weeks. Those levels are near the top of the trading range for the next 6 or so months. i belive spx will remain between 788-900 during that period. later in the year we can take another run at the oct lows, but not just yet. steve