Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (53654)	3/15/2003 9:32:59 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

CDMA Cha2, << Curious what you as a well informed professional think is the potential for CDMA in its various forms in the world over the next few years. >> Good to see you poking your head out and about to smell the (almost) spring time air like Badger used to do in "Wind in the Willows." Yours is a worthwhile query. Give me a day or two or three and I'll attempt to take a shot at that with some non-professional opinionated opinions and observations. As a short response it looks like we are about to see the first commercial implementation of 3GSM WCDMA in the UK and Italy by Hutchinson Whampoa's '3' with Vodafone geared to launch Germany In Q3 or so. That is positive since it starts a trickle of new royalty revenue to Qualcomm. Unfortunately it will be just a trickle for starters. Capex constraints in this economy, unfortunately, are still retarding the implementation of CDMA (any flavor) radio access network infrastructure or upgrades to that infrastructure. In a robust economy 3GSM (and CDMA2000) carriers would currently be building out energetically, confident that technical hurdles associated with new generation gear, will be overcome, and confident that a technology push would overcome a lack of business plan and even underlying services. As a personal commentary (a vent) related to CDMA infrastructure buildouts, I would like to add the following anecdote. My wife's 9 month old KYO 2235 from Verizon nicely displays "1xRTT ready" in addition to the "D" for digital when it is in a 1xRTT coverage area. Our residence (and my office attached) is not exactly in the boondocks and we are in the heart of BAM country. We are exactly 45 driving miles south of the Liberty Bell, and 55 miles north of Inner Harbor in Baltimore. We are 2 driving miles from either of 2 entrances to I-95, the major north/south Eastern seaboard US artery, and adjacent to a college campus with some 30,000 students. We still have no 1xRTT coverage although it is available 5 miles north and closer to I-95. Visitors to our home using Sprint PCS do not have 1xRTT coverage here either and they have to travel 10 miles north to momentarily access it. Those same PCS users (unless they are using a Sanyo) have to go outside my office and stand on the steps to get voice carrier. By contrast T-Mobile USA GPRS has been available here for over a year, AWS GPRS mLife is available here, and within the last month Cingular GPRS in 850 MHz is available here, all of which frosts my balls since I am something of a Verizon cheerleader and I am now, as of a month ago, able to combine residential wireline service (including long distance which is new) on the same unified bill as my family plan wireless service which is a very nice convenience that I've wanted for some time. Best, - Eric -

To: gdichaz who wrote (53654)	3/22/2003 5:16:34 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

CDMA Growth Potential Cha2, Just thought that I best get back and let you know that I have not forgotten your request for me to comment on what I think is the potential for CDMA in its various forms in the world over the next few years. I intend to do that, just cant tell you when I will complete a response. The first thing I need to do, before responding is to go back and plug in (and recalculate) revised numbers to the last "Unofficial" Technology Scorecard that I have been maintaining for some time and make it "Official," now that CDG has finally published "official" year ending CDMA subscriber numbers. When I published the unofficial numbers 6 weeks or so ago for year ending 2002 I used EMC's numbers which I consider official for GSM (and also use for AMPS, TDMA, and PDC) but not for CDMA. As a consequence I noted that official numbers would be calculated when CDG publishes Q4 2003 figures which they now have done.. There is a wider than normal discrepancy between EMC's unofficial CDMA number and CDG's "official" number for year ending 2002. EMC reported 142.7 million CDMA subs at year end and CDG reported 146.7 million. In addition EMC showed only 8.6 million CDMA net sub adds for Q4 and CDG reported a much more encouraging 11.8 million net sub adds for that final quarter. Based on the unofficial numbers I had reported that in 2002 That CDMA with 27.2% YOY Growth grew slightly faster than GSM (25.5%) in 2003. I think you will be pleased to hear that the gap is somewhat wider than that, as I am. Worst case, CDMA can once again legitimately claim to be the worlds fastest growing mobile wireless technology (even if a few WLL sub numbers are thrown in as they may well be - and distictions are now blurring because of Reliance's redefinition of limited mobility). Best, - Eric -