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To: morokko65 who wrote (68596)	3/16/2003 1:22:52 AM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

...but this time the market consensus is that it will be a cakewalk, and that is what alarms the contrarian in me. Good point. I think there is fear, but it is suppressed. Is the market flying up the wall of worry, or is it just plain complacency, greed and panic buying - that I don't know. I do see a nice setup for selling the news, however...

To: morokko65 who wrote (68596)	3/16/2003 9:22:00 AM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 209892

I have had those same thoughts, Overonfidence here has me nervous. We already have plans for rebuilding, and war isnt started? I have a bad feeling.

To: morokko65 who wrote (68596)	3/16/2003 3:13:17 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I think the war will be a cakewalk. It's the aftermath I am worried about, the occupation, feeding, rebuilding and "democratization" of Iraq. The democratization part is particularly worrisome. The majority in Iraq are the southern Shiites, which are good buddies with Iran's ayatollahs. What if the majority want an islamic "democracy" ala Iran. And the costs to the US will be astronomical, in spite of Iraqi oil. It will take years for the oil production increase to cover the costs to the US taxpayers. Kyros

To: morokko65 who wrote (68596)	3/16/2003 3:46:02 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I agree, what we're dealing with compared to 91 is completely different. Saddam will make his stand in bagdad. Any of his troops out in the open desert are toast. Either we carpet bomb bagdad, which is out of the question, or Saddam is killed by his own guys. Or we engage in house to house fighting in the city where our guys and his are on a more or less equal footing. In the last case there will be lots of US casualties and Iraqi casualties. The more firepower we use the more civillian deaths there will be making us look like brutal oppressors to the arabs. Not to mention the mess we're going to have deal with afterwards trying to keep the peace. The only upside is that oil may be cheaper when it's done. If it isn't the global economy is in deep sh*t IMO.