My 100th Newsletter...
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JERRY OLSON"S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED MARCH 9TH 2003
"100TH ANNIVERSARY NEWSLETTER"
Well well well, I actually wrote 100 of these?<G> Gee whiz what a journey. My friends we are still here, we are still alive, we are still trying to be prudent about preserving capital at all costs...While I understand we have stopped investing for now, because it makes no sense to try to pick this bottom. I must remind you all, that bottoms do occur and bottoms are tradable...
I can not predict it, I can not guess, nor will I gamble on when this will happen...but know this, it will happen..sooner than later...All of my trading instincts, all of my expertise in Point & Figure Charting says we are still going lower first before we can find buyers to really get that sideline money to work...We all hear about "sideline" money, but I can say without a doubt it is there..Fund managers have been very very scared to invest "other" peoples money just yet..They continue to get there tootsies burned each time they dip them into the abyss...heh heh heh...
Every rally has been met with sellers, more and more people that were trapped on those rallies thinking this was "it". They learned quickly it was not the real Mccoy..So my conclusion for us all, is to be patient. Do not anticipate, do not lean one way or the other...Do not guess...Wait, we'll see and call the bottom...We've done it before, many times..There are technical actions that help us determine if this is tradable or not...Please use your heads..There is no rush, no urgency. Be ultra cautious, ultra conservative..
While we have changed our short term trading philosophy and became "daytraders" because of the markets wild actions have dictated it to us, we are at heart long term buy and holders...that's where the real money is made in the long haul. We all understand and we all know this for sure... But I want you to wait...I want you to get prepared when this turns..
Now what should you be doing?. First sell those stocks that are so far underwater it makes no sense to hold them any longer..If you owned them at 100-200 and they are 1-2-3 bucks sell them now and raise cash..Cash is important for you to buy "other" stocks when this bottom turns...You cannot leverage your accounts without cash..if you're stuck sitting on "dogs with fleas" then how the heck are you going to extricate yourself when the time is right..Hoping, wishing and praying, will not do it!...sorry..but that's just the way it is. So systematically sell, and do it now...I have been talking about this action for well over 1 year now...Pounding the tables to sell sell sell...Has anyone done this? Have you gone to cash? Are you getting prepared for the next "best" move after we bottom? Please I cannot point and click for you. Have the guts to just do it...
There is going to be a lot more pain..Understand that, we have a chance to test the Oct lows...That is way down there folks, and that simply means that stocks and indexes and sectors will continue to cascade lower and lower grinding down in a horrific way for investors..I only wish I could publish this Nation wide in every newspaper in every magazine for every family and friend..I hate the fact that these fund managers paraded on TV continue to spout their crap about buying and holding all during this protracted downturn for 3 years now..It's been those "supposed" Wizards of Fall Street that have raped the entire public of their wealth...We already know that the CEO's are no better either.
From March/April of 2000 there has been nothing but carnage for all investors...Thank goodness I had Point & Figure Charting to help me survive, and help you too..While I was not always right on market direction in the shorter time frames..We have nailed this trend without a doubt... I suggest that everyone that reads this go to www.dorseywright.com and take their free trial, mention that I sent you please as Tom Dorsey is my friend and mentor..Go to their P&F University and learn this TA(technical analysis). Because folks without the technical picture of your stock, the markets the sector where your stock resides, how can you buy this stock on fundamentals alone?. Fundamental analysis is certainly important, but it's impossible to buy and hold without knowing the technical picture of your stock..Don't think you can do this? Think again..Anyone can and should learn TA.."everyone with out fail"..I don't care how young or old you are..I am telling you, this is a must!...
I take a top down approach to the whole idea of investing/trading...Where are the indexes, the DOW-NAZDAQ-SOX- SPX etc, where are the Sectors, the Bio techs the Semiconductors, the Banks etc, then where are the stocks within these sectors as compared to the Relative Strength to the SPXEWI, and their peers in that sector ..Meaning whose the strong among the whole sector during this protracted downturn..We can and will identify those stocks that can most benefit us going forward..I implore you to open and sign Options Papers with your broker. While many of you do not trade options you need to learn and understand them, this one type of trading that could make you a lot of money back using the leverage of LEAP Calls for 2005..These are options that expire in Jan 2005, but can be trade all the way from here just like any other option or stock..You are not required to hold them all the way out...check out www.cboe.com
As we go forward during this time frame I will offer up to you several options strategies that can bring in much needed cash to help you repair your losses. It's called selling or writing Covered Calls on your current positions in your IRA's and Stock Portfolio's..You'll love the cash inflows I promise<g>. This type of trading is very conservative too. Very little risk. I'll show you some examples as we move forward..Forget all that hullabaloo about options...People are always saying you'll lose big time..that is flat out wrong..Options are used as leverage period...Long or Short, Puts or Calls..It matters not..This technique will surprise you big time...There's another wonderful trade too..Buy a stock that pays a dividend like EK or MO then sell the Jan 2005 Leap Call one strike above your entry...You catch the dividend for the year, you capture the premium from selling the Leap, and the potential of being called "out" of that stock at a higher price paying you back your original price plus those extra points...this is an awesome way to make cash money return to your portfolio's...Any stock broker recommend this to you?? huh? Yeah Right!!!
While we certainly cannot trade the War or Al Qaeda it's impossible for sure, just understand why I've been preaching to stay in cash at night, you'll sleep like a log, and wake up each and everyday neutral...keep this up please..there is NO change in my thinking right here, right now..The markets are wildly volatile intraday, and day to day, moving on every news blurb every TV item, it's very very whippy as we can see it each day in the real time trading room..Stay the course, & trade the plan..and relax...
OK LET'S CHECK ALL THE INDEXES...FIRST LET ME SAY THE NYSE OTC & OPTI BULLISH PERCENTS ON POINT & FIGURE CHARTS ARE STILL ON DEE-FENSE AND FALLING...WHILE THAT IS HAPPENING, WE DO SEE SOME SHORTER TERM INDICATORS REVERSING HERE...HOWEVER THEY CAN REVERSE RIGHT BACK DOWN QUICKLY IF WE CRASH AND BURN...KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE CHARTS...SET ALERTS ON ALL MY NUMBERS FOR ALL THE INDEXES WE WATCH..THAT WILL TELL THE TALE...
DJIA---THE DOW HAS BEEN MOVING LOWER AND LOWER SINCE THE DEC 2ND TOP. IT'S UNDER THE 20 EMA DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC). HAMMERED ON FRIDAY ON GOOD VOLUME...ON P&F CHART IT IS IN A BEARISH TRIANGLE HEADING DOWN..LOOKS LIKE 7350 IS THE TARGET WITH 7200 THE OCT LOWS..7750 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP(3BXRVUP)..7550 CONTINUES THIS INDEX DOWN...
COMPX---BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) AT 1290 LAST FRIDAY..THERE IS SOME SUPPORT(S) AT 1270...1320 THE 3BXRVUP...GET THIS FOLKS.,..1125 THE OCT LOWS THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND(10WK) IS 1175 THERE IS HEAVY S AT THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL) AT 1275. THE 10WK BOTTOM IS 100% OVERSOLD(O/S)..
SOX--- SEMI CONDUCTOR INDEX---HAMMERED DESPITE INTC! AND HELD 280 AGAIN FOR ABOUT THE 5TH TIME..OBVIOUSLY ANY BREAK OF THAT IS NEGATIVE. IT MUST BREAK OVER 300 AND HOLD. 230 THE BOTTOM OF THE 10WK.
BKX---THE BANKING INDEX---DO OR DIE RIGHT HERE AND NOW. IT HELD THE DB AT 695. BUT LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT SHORT HERE..690 IS THE BREAKDOWN AND NEGATIVE FOR THE MARKET IN GENERAL. 660 THE BOTTOM OF THE 10WK...
BTK---BIO TECH INDEX---CONTRINUES LOWER AND LOWER RIGHT NOW..S AT 305..A TRIPLE BOTTOM AREA..325 MAKES A 3BXRVUP TO THE 20 EMA DCC. 300 BREAK TAKES IT LOWER FAST..WATCH FOR A SOX/BTK/BKX BREAKDOWN TOGETHER..VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE WHOLE MARKET...
NDX---NASDAQ 100---HOLDING 970 THE DB, 960 IS THE BREAKDOWN 940 1ST TARGET 870 THE BOT OF THE 10 WK 800 THE OCT LOWS..THAT'S BIG MOVE DOWN FOLKS...186 POINTS!...THERE'S A LOOK OF A HEAD AND SHOULDERS ON THE DAILY CHARTS...A BREAK OF 930 COULD REALLY ACCELERATE THIS DOWN MOVE..
SPH3---SPOOOS---FUTURES...WILD INTRADAY SWINGS...VOLATILE AND TRADABLE IF YOU KNOW WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING AT. WE NAILED THIS INDEX 3 TIMES ON FRIDAY ALONE. 805 MUST HOLD...IT HAMMERED FRIDAY ON GOOD VOLUME. 820 THE DB. 804/802 IS REAL TROUBLE FOR THE LONGS. 770/780 WOULD BE THERE IN A BLINK..THE OCT LOWS..WILL THEY HOLD? ONLY THE SHADOW KNOWSHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...
NQH3---THE NAZ 100 FUTURES---SITTING RIGHT ON THE BSL LINE AT 980...960 IS THE BREAKDOWN AND 1010 IS THE 3BXRVUP. 1020 MONSTER O/H R(RESISTANCE)...A SNEAK ATTACK AT 1030 WOULD NAIL ALL THE SHORTS NAPPING...THE 200 EMA ON THE DCC HAS BEEN HOLDING "SO" FAR.
SPX---A BREAK OF 805 IS NEGATIVE...830 THE 3BXRVUP---IF IT BREAKS DOWN 770 IS THE TARGET...
OEX---405 THE BREAKDOWN NUMBER---435 THE B/O NUMBER...390/385 IS THE TARGET ON ANY BREAK RIGHT AT THE OCT LOWS...WE ARE ALREADY CLOSE..THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO TRADE INDEX OPTIONS EITHER WAY..BE NIMBLE AND NEVER CHASE EARLY BEFORE 10 AM...USE LIMIT ORDERS ONLY...
VIX INDEX---AT R HERE RIGHT AT THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE(BRL) AT 37 AND BACKED OFF A BIT LATE FRIDAY AS WE RALLIED UP ON BIN LADEN'S SON'S NEWS...34 THE 3BXRVDN---IF IT BREAKS 32 THEN IT PLUNGES TO 27 AND EXPLODES THE MARKETS HIGHER...ON THE OTHER HAND(OTOH) IF IT TOOK OUT 39 AND THEN 41 THE MARKETS WOULD IMPLODE...HEY SET ALERTS THESE ARE REAL SOLID NUMBERS ON THIS INDEX WHICH MOVE INVERSE TO THE MARKETS...
VXN---THE CHART IS BEARISH WHICH IS BULLISH FOR THE MARKETS RIGHT HERE. 49 IS THE DOUBLE TOP(DT) BUY THEN 52 IS R...THATS BEARISH, HOWEVER 44 IS A DB BREAK WITH 41 THE TARGET WHICH IS BULLISH...WATCH AND SET ALERTS...
THE MARKETS ARE IN FLUX RIGHT NOW BUT STILL TOO MY WAY THINKING IN A PROTRACTED DOWN TREND..TILL IT CHANGES WITH DRAMATIC VOLUME ATTACHED ALL RALLIES UP ARE SHORTS...GOT THAT?...INDEXS & STOCKS.
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OK LET'S CHECK OUR WATCH LIST FOR THIS WEEKS ACTION...
MSFT---BULLISH ENGULFING BAR ON FRIDAY ON BETTER VOLUME. AT S HERE AT THE BSL LINE...23.85 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG)---23.20 THE SST(SHORT SALE TRIGGER)---I LIKE IT LONG, MARKET WILLING...SHORT TERM OF COURSE...
AMGN---THE ENERGIZER BUNNY WHAT POWER, EVERY DIP INTRADAY IS BOUGHT...FANTASTIC UPTREND AGAINST THE WHOLE DAMN MARKETS DIRECTION...56.30 THE BTL---55.10 THE SST..WONDERFUL P&F CHART.
CYMI---VERY WEAK LOOKING CHART NEARING SOME S AT THE BSL LINE ABOUT 24ISH...27.30 THE BTL---25.90 THE SST---ANY RALLY UP 2-3 POINTS IS A SHORT...
EBAY---THE INTERNETS ARE THE TRUE STRENGTH OF THIS MARKET, WHICH IS REMARKABLE TO SAY THE LEAST..EBAY--AMZN--YHOO ALL EARNING "REAL" MONEY! THEY HAVE TO BE STEALING IT RIGHT<VBG>? BTW I SAID EBAY WOULD HIT 80 WHEN IT WAS 75...ASK FREDDIE<G>...80.50 THE BTL---79.20 THE SST...
IBM---BEARISH FORMING CHART FOR WEEKS NOW..BIG BULLISH BAR ON THE DCC ON FRIDAY...VOLUME UP A BIT..I USE A 10 PERIOD MVA ON VOLUME TO CHECK ALL STOCKS AND INDEXS...78.50 THE BTL---77.10 THE SST...
ELX---AN ACCIDENT WAITING TO HAPPEN...UNDERNEATH ALL MVA'S ON THE DCC...TRYING TO RALLY SOME HERE...18.65 THE BTL---17.75 THE SST...
PG---HAS HELD BELOW THE BRL LINE SINCE NOV 2002 AND CONTINUES TO BREAKDOWN..BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 81 I TOOK IT SHORT..MADE SOME MONEY TRADING IT FOR THE LAST 2 WEEKS...ANY BOUNCE HERE IS A SHORT..COULD RUN BACK UP TO THE DESCENDING 20 EMA DCC AT 82.50/83 AREA...I SAID "COULD"...HELD A DECENT BOTTOM LAST WEEK AT AROUND 79+ AREA...80.50 THE BTL---80.25 THE SST...
EXPE---YOU BETTER GET A GRIP HERE TRADERS, THIS IS ONE WILD AND WHOLLY STOCK. YOU'LL NEED A DRINK OR 2 AFTER TRYING TO TRADE THIS ONE FOLKS. BUT WE ALL DID VERY WELL DURING THE WEEK TRADING IT SEVERAL TIMES..IT'S POWERFUL RIGHT NOW...BUT I READ SOMEWHERE BARRON'S HAD A NEGATIVE ARTICLE ON IT OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPS BANGING INTO THE BRL LINE..NEGATIVE FOR ME..MIGHT BE A NICE SHORT HUH?..71 THE BTL---69.40 THE SST---I'LL TAKE THAT SS IF IT DOES NOT GAP DOWN...
QCOM---CANNOT GET ABOVE THE 20 EMA DCC...SELLERS ARE THERE EVERYTIME SO FAR...36 IS THE 3BXRVUP...35.70 THE BTL---34.60 THE SST..IT MUST TAKE OUT 36 IF YOU'RE LONG..
IMCL---OOOH GOT MY FINGERS BURNT ON THIS ONE ON FRIDAY..BUT MADE IT UP ON EXPE LONG...THERE'S A POTENTIAL HANGING MAN OR SPINNING TOP FORMATION HERE..SO CAREFUL...IT'S EXTENDED TOO...ABOVE THE 10WK TRADING BAND SO 100% OVERBOUGHT...16.30 THE BTL---15.20 THE SST...MIGHT BE A SOLID SS...
INTU---RALLIED UP AND NEAR THE BRL..THIS BRL LINE IS A VERY TOUGH RESISTANCE AREA ON ALL P&F CHARTS FOLKS...SO KEEP THAT IN MIND..48.50 THE BTL...47.15 THE SST..I'LL TAKE IT SHORT...AND MAY SHORT IT IF IT HITS THE BRL AT 49...WE'LL SEE WHAT THE MARKETS LOOK LIKE...
RMBS---HELD S AT 12.50 OFF THAT COURT RULING SCENARIO LAST WEEK..VOLATILE AND TRADABLE...2 NARROW RANGE BARS THURS & FRIDAY...14.00 THE BTL---12.85 THE SST...COULD GO EITHER WAY...A SHORT LOOKS BETTER IF IT HAPPENS...
QLGC---THIS ONE IS A WONDERFUL TRADER NOW...I TOOK IT LONG SEVERAL TIMES LAST WEEK AND DID WELL...IT'S IN A PENNANT FORMATION ON THE DCC WHICH IS BULLISH IF WE RALLY FOR 1-2 DAYS...IT JUST DID A 3 BOX RVUP ON P&F TOO..MEANING A SMALL CHANGE OF TREND AFTER SELLING OFF HARD...36.40 THE BTL---35.45 THE SST..I LIKE IT LONG AND STRONG MARKET WILLING...
PSFT---RECENTLY BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM ON P&F...SUGGESTING A MUCH LOWER NUMBER AHEAD..MAYBE THE 13.50 AREA. BOT OF THE 10 WK...I'D SHORT ANY RALLY UP IN THIS STOCK...20 EMA OVERHEAD(O/H) IS AT 17.40 AREA...16.50 THE BTL---15.60 THE SST...WEAK CHART FOLKS...
KLAC---SOME LATE BUYING IN THIS STOCK ON FRIDAY AND A PIRECING PATTERN HAS EMERGED..BUT THE STOCK IS STILL VERY WEAK AND TIED TO THE SOX INDEX..SO THAT WILL BE THE KEY FOR ALL THE SEMIS NEXT WEEK...31 IS THE LINE IN THE SAND FOR THIS ONE...AND 36 FOR THE B/O AREA...34.35 THE BTL---33.35 THE SST...COULD GO EITHER WAY...BUT A WEAK LOOKING CHART...
IDPH---VERY WEAK CHART PATTERN HERE...KEEPS MOVING LOWER AND LOWER. WATCH THE BIO TECH INDEX THE BTK---2 DOJI'S IN A ROW LAST WEEK RIGHT AT THE 20 EMA..NOT GOOD...29.15 THE BTL---28.15 THE SST...I'LL TAKE IT SS...
MXIM---CONTINUES TO IMPROVE BUT STILL IN A DOWNTREND...MAKING LOWER TOPS AS WE BREAK LOWER ON THE INDEXS..I MADE MONEY ON THE LONG SIDE WITH THIS ONE...34.80 THE BTL---33.70 THE SST---I LIKE IT LONG...
GNSS---THIS STOCK IS TRYING TO GIVE A LOW POLE WARNING IN THE FACE OF MAJOR ADVERSITY...A LOW POLE WARNING MEANS THE STOCK RETRACES BACK UP 50% FROM THE DOWN MOVE PLUS 1 BOX FOR GOOD MEASURE...IF WE RALLY THAT WILL HAPPEN...THERE'S A PENNANT FORMATION ON THE DCC THAT WILL POP THIS STOCK HIGHER...13.50 THE BTL---12.50 THE SST..I LOVE IT LONG...
NVLS---VERY VERY WEAK CHART BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 27 AS PREDICTED...IT HAS THE BSL LINE WHICH CAN GIVE SOME NEAR TERMS AT 25...BUT ULTIMATELY THIS LOOK'S BAD...BUT HECK WHAT DOESN'T?...27 THE BTL---26 THE SST...
YHOO---SOLID STOCK CHART FOLKS..I KNOW I KNOW..IT'S YHOO..AN INTERNET STOCK<g>...HEY WHAT CAN I SAY THE STREET LOVES THE TRIO EBAY AMZN AND YHOO... NUTTY RIGHT..AS THE MARKET FALLS OUTTA BED, THEY KEEP RALLYING...WHAT A CRAZY MARKET... HELD THE 450 EMA DCC...HAMMERED FRIDAY TOO BOOT..20.00 THE BTL--19.15 THE SST---I LOVE IT LONG...BULLISH PERCENT IS AT 34.34 AND RISING...NICE...
OK HEADSUP HERE...WE HAVE HEAVY O/H R AT 829 ON THE FUTURES...AND ANY BREAK OF 805 IS REAL TROUBLE...THEY DID NOT CAPTURE BIN LADENS SONS SO THAT COULD BE NEGATIVE IN THE AM...BE CAREFUL..NO RUSH HERE...832 IS THE 3BXRVUP...
I WANTED TO SAY TO ALL OF MY LONG TIME AND SHORT TIME SUBSCRIBERS, THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATRONAGE ALL THRU THIS TIME FRAME..I REALLY APPRECIATE IT A GREAT DEAL...PLEASE TRY TO MENTION THE NEWSLETTER AND REAL TIME ROOM TO OTHERS WE SURE CAN HELP SOME FELLOW TRADERS AND INVESTORS...AGAIN THANK YOU SO MUCH...
FOR THIS WEEK THE PASSWORD WILL BE--------------------- hundred-------------lower case one word...admin # IS the same...
I have a hectic personal week this week..Mon i'll be out from 11.30 to 1.00, Tues I go to the Heart Institute for a checkup..no I do not have heart problems<G> that's at 10.30 to about 12.00..then either Weds or Thurs i'll be in Atlantic City for 1/2 a day..and on Friday I have a house meeting at 11.00 to 1.00.. I am counting on all the admins to fill in for me while I'm out..I scheduled all of this in one week so I can concentrate later on without interruptions...
please send personal regards to your families and friends from me and mine...100 newsletters it's been quite a journey for us all...
warmest regards
jerry
jerry olson
www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com
jerry.olson@verizon.net
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