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To: The Freep who wrote (68682)	3/17/2003 12:41:37 AM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

Since no one mentioned it, the COT showed the commercials adding back to the e-mini short position (about a 70K net switch) and adding about 1K long in the full contract. This doesn't negate the prior week's huge shift, but it cuts more then 60% of it, I believe. Also, check those QQQ options again. I now show 140K more calls than puts at 25, 170K more at 26, and only 75K more puts than calls at 24. I would be pretty shocked to see us over QQQ 26 this week by more than pennies. Now, while I remain bearish overall, I must admit that last week smelled like a good reversal, particularly with volume. Then again, I have never believed that we'd have a war rally duplicating all prior ones, so I remain dubious. Still, if the 11 week cycle I like (slightly different than the 55 day cycle, I think) has reverted back to its regular rhythm, it hit this past week, and would likely have marked a low that will hold for three weeks. The problem here is two fold: it COULD have been a high, but more annoyingly, the last cycle around Xmas hit a week late. If that cycle holds, we get cycle lows/highs THIS week. As for why the futures are down...the Administration has said "tomorrow is the day for action." This means either the UN passes a resolution allowing war OR the US unilaterally starts a war. In other words... it means war. With the threat of WMD, terrorism, and the tinderbox of the Mideast in general, everyone on the fence about playing for a war rally is gonna bail faster than you can say "fire in the hole." The question is will the believers in the rally jump in and buy the dips? the freep

To: The Freep who wrote (68682)	3/17/2003 2:12:20 AM
From: At_The_Ask	Respond to of 209892

I think the turn could well be a high. This started out to be a real chart but I've been watching Dune and messing with it all day. I think my brainwaves shifted. at_the_ask.tripod.com It's interesting that both downwaves from 12-2 are 21 days, perhaps forcasting an extended wave to follow. I can't be bullish unless 1350 comp is exceeded due to the channel. The flat 4 is the key point to the whole thing. essentially I think we go down for a while.

To: The Freep who wrote (68682)	3/17/2003 10:34:52 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

1st off, I didn't say we would get lower lows in April, I said I would be selling early/mid April highs based on the technical situation. I think we will take out the October lows sometimw in the May-July timeframe...so selling a nice April high would the position trade for me. The only inversion on the Stan Harley Chart was the ATH in the SPX, and a great example of how a mania FED money pump can influence a cycle...what I've been talking about for quite some time now...only I'm contending that liquidity and program trading is just forcing cycles in early now...not inverting them, since theres obviously not enough cash to do that. Mutual fund cash to assets ratio are now in the 4% range vs the 1991 levels of 13% before the last Iraq invasion... I have to defer to Stan Harley on the exact dynamics of the 378TD cycle, but the chart is pretty obvious. Most/all of the turns came in within a few days of the actual cycle count, and by my reckoning that's still March 24th. Of course nothing is a given with cycles. Hope all is well with the new additiopn ;) Best, jm