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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (32748)	3/17/2003 10:36:27 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 57110

SPI = Share Price Index based on the XPO (today known as the All Share Index in Australia) The way I am reading this is they are making a comparison as to how it behaved during previous corrections __________________ csf.colorado.edu EWP on the SPI & ASX 200 (XJO) 16 March 2003 This is chart is from 1925 for the XJO. This used to be the old All Ordinaries. This XJO is adjusted for all the changes that have occurred when the ASX reorganized all the indices without back adjusting for the changes about two years ago. It means that longterm trend lines on the non-adjusted will not work. It will also throw price measurements out of relationships. Thus unless you use back adjusted data, wrong conclusions can easily be surmised. There have been no changes to this long term labeling for about ten years. Only the additional data has been added and labeling after 1994. It shows the length of time an Elliott count can remain valid in this degree whilst giving targets to aim for. It has also shows a Green wave (A) price range which repeat itself on the chart. This gives us a rough guide as to projections and corrections. The red harmonic labeled H on the 1937 up swing repeats as shown on this chart. Even the latest swing blue (5) is a technical range repeat of H. This repetition has lasted 70 years. For example, the chart shows that the XJO has reached a major top projection. If we examine previous corrections of this degree, it would suggest what has happened so far in the latest correction does not match the depth of previous corrections of the same degree. This thus suggests there is more to come in the present bear market. This chart is interesting in the 1929 BEAR market that lasted only four years. The BULL MARKET TOP of 1929 was exceeded 1934. It took to 1954 that the S&P exceeded its 1929 high. Australia at that time had the highest earnings relative to population in the world. However, the wealth was unevenly spread. This led to strikes and the first organized labor unions. A little later, the State of Queensland had the first Labor Government in the world. The S&P went into a 20 years triangle from 1929 to 1950. In the Australian index, that U.S. triangle expressed itself in a running wave \|4\| that completed in 1956. The next rise led Australia into the mining boom in the 1970’s, the Whitlam’s “buy back the farm” scheme, the “Khemlani Loans Affair” to do that, and the Whitlam dismissal by the Governor General in 1975. The next move did not start from the August 1974 low; it started later in March 1978. Most Elliotticians took the 1974 low as start of the up move. However, that does not meet the requirement that the new up move most take the previous down move in less time than it took to form. Establishing wave [1] and [2] gives us a rough wave [3] completion of 1.618 [1]; this gives a projection completion at ~ 2820. However, this was not the end of the BULL market. It led to a major correction of the ASIAN crisis. It took another 5 years to reach the end of wave [3]. This is relatively close for such a large time-frame. The confluence of projection on lesser degrees was to provide a much closer projection of wave [3] conclusion.