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To: bcrafty who wrote (68726)3/17/2003 12:29:42 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
I can't say regarding time, except that I would think a logical time would be the outbreak of a unilateral US invasion.

Regarding price, I think the 2/3 of the price movement of this wave is already complete. I would think that a significant price threshold would need to be hit, though. Obvious targets are:

1. Right here, where Shack's bear count C=1.618xA on most everything
2. SPX 880 COMP 1420
3. SPX 930 COMP 1460

I can make a pretty darned good case for the bullish ammunition to be spent here. If you anticipated a war rally, you would have spent you ammunition these last couple of trading days. That leads me to believe scenario 1 or 2. I probably favor #2, given that there may be a few late bulls trying to lay chase, but I don't think there are enough to produce scenario #3.

The guys buying this in soize aren't stupid, either. The ones with this kind of money know better than to wait around for someone else to sell before them, and they also know better than to believe in the 1991-repeat fairy tale.

BC