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To: AllansAlias who wrote (68738)	3/17/2003 12:54:58 PM
From: byhiselo	Respond to of 209892

stop it man, your scaring me those of the ursine persuasion will drop a heaping helping of dung if those targets are in play fwiw, i'm considering a few select shorts if we close anywhere near here cheers

To: AllansAlias who wrote (68738)	3/17/2003 12:57:50 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I'm sorry, I forget that everyone has differing goals and opinions on intermediate-term, what "is" is, etc. <g> I would expect a truncated "C" if that's what's unfolding. You are certainly helpful in that you're now making me question that, but I don't see the fuel for a full "C" here. Even if you challenge the Dec. highs in a truncated "C", you are looking at upside risks of 10% in tech and 7% in non-tech (and no, I don't think Dow stands a chance at the December highs - it's weak RSI is pretty clear here). This compares to my conviction that the secular bear must make new lows in the next year. Granted, a quick, successful war would give a pop to the economy, but it, too would be fleeting, and we'll be back to dealing with the bubble excesses yet again. And every time we come back to dealing with the bubble excesses, we are in worse and worse condition to do so. How many more times are people going to refi? How much higher can real estate valuations go relative to incomes? How many more times can the Fed lower rates? I see this rally not as one to climb on board for, but as another shorting opportunity in one of the biggest secular bears in history. So, do I view 10% upside as a problem? Yes, that's why I will be selling gradually and only at levels still further up from here. But compared to the payoff - fresh lows - I think the long-term R/R is favorable. I always ask myself: are the people moving the market today making sound investments? Will they be up a year from now? When the answer is "no", and fundamentals and technicals line up, I look to fade them, not join them. BC