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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (68753)	3/17/2003 1:55:10 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

If I thought we had reached even a 1/3 likelihood of the conditions necessary for a multi-year rally off the October lows, then I would have considered it for a "trade". However, we had just begun to scratch the surface of the necessary conditions for that kind of a move. The really reliable contrarian long-term indicators like mutual fund cash levels and sentiment are totally wrong for a multi-year cyclical bull within this bear. That day will come, and perhaps soon, but not until a truly cleansing phase has unfolded. Until then, we remain limited to rallies of a 3-6 month nature, like those off 9/11/01, or last October. The bear is a cannibal, and will try to destroy even its own kind before it is complete. I know my tendency is to be too early on things, and I'm trying desperately not to be a casualty. BC