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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nigel bates who wrote (8041)	3/19/2003 8:11:09 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Somewhat off topic re Value of Antisense: And the longwinded version of what Nigel said in a couple sentences... ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 19-Mar-03 No Sense In Giving Up On Antisense [BRIEFING.COM - Robert Walberg] Earlier this week, Isis Pharmaceuticals suffered a serious setback. Affinitak, a cancer drug the company was developing with Eli Lilly (LLY), failed to prolong the lives of lung cancer patients in Phase III trials. The clinical failure not only pushes out the date at which Affinitak might come to market (Lilly running its own trial on the drug), but has many on Wall Street questioning the validity of ISIS's antisense technology. For those of you not familiar with the company, ISIS Pharmaceuticals is engaged in the discovery and development of a new class of drugs called antisense oligonucleotides. Unlike traditional drugs, antisense drugs work at the genetic level to interrupt the process by which disease-causing proteins are produced. Almost all human diseases are the result of inappropriate protein production (or disordered protein performance). This is true of both host diseases such as cancer, and infectious diseases such as AIDS. Most traditional drugs work by interfering with disease-causing proteins. However, these drugs often bind to non-target proteins and cause toxic side effects. Given that antisense drugs are based on the genetic code, they can be designed to target a specific protein thereby reducing the toxicity associated with many conventional drugs. Antisense drug design is also faster, less complex and more efficient than the traditional drug design directed at protein targets. They can be designed to treat a wide range of diseases including infectious, inflammatory and cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Though antisense technology is highly promising, it is still in its infancy. Isis, a leader in this field, introduced Vitravene, the only antisense drug to be approved by the FDA. Vitravene is an antisense inhibitor of CMV replication, the virus that causes retinitis. CMV retinitis affects people with AIDS and often results in blindness. Unfortunately ISIS hasn't been able to replicate its success with Vitravene anywhere else, as its has now suffered a number of high profile clinical setbacks. However, Briefing.com not ready to throw in the towel on antisense technology altogether. Fact is that since Affinitak began its journey through the clinical trials, technologies have changed significantly. Consequently, it's very possible that with some adjustments Affinitak, or something like it, will ultimately prove successful. The next major test for antisense technology comes from ISIS competitor Genta (GNTA). Results from Phase III trials of its drug, Genasense, are expected later this year. Given the recent setbacks in antisense technology, market doesn't have much confidence that GNTA will succeed where ISIS failed, as stock is trading near its lows. But before you lose total confidence in antisense technology, it's important to remember that most drugs fail in clinical trials. Taking into account the complicated nature of the technology and the fact that it's relatively new, failure shouldn't be that surprising. The good news for the believers is that Isis Pharmaceuticals, while down, is definitely not out. Company has roughly $392 mln in cash and cash equivalents -- enough to cover its burn rate for more than four years. That's plenty of time to push through the remaining 11 drug candidates that it has sitting in its pipeline. And while most of these drug candidates will fail at trial, it only takes one or two for company to a) prove validity of its technology and b) start turning a profit. The failure of Affinitak to statistically alter the lifespan of lung cancer patients was a definite setback for ISIS and for antisense technology. However, Briefing.com maintains that it's way too early to dismiss antisense technology and/or Isis. As such, Briefing.com contends that ISIS is a compelling long-term investment candidate for high risk tolerant investors seeking much better than average capital appreciation. In light of recent developments, there's clearly no rush to hit the bid. But as the stock stabilizes it will make sense for aggressive growth investors to make a bet on the long-term success of antisense technology, and of Isis Pharmaceuticals. Robert Walberg, Briefing.com