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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (4794)	3/17/2003 3:31:11 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 13403

OT to Jacob, We could still get a start of war rally even though most "SAY" they expect one. This presumes that the US coalition prosecutes the war smoothly, efficiently and quickly without large losses. Hedge funds have extraordinarily large positions to unwind. That job won't be completed within the next 3 days. The unwinding of those positions "IF" and WHEN done, will lead to a substantial rally. IMO, Ian

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (4794)	3/17/2003 5:31:30 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

Jacob to expound on the technical situation just a bit I would like to add the following. The 5-day Trader's Index (^STI.N), which is the five-day sum of TRIN, gives buy signals above 9.00 as it did last Monday. It also gives sell signals when it is below 4.00. It is now reading a dangerous 4.43: finance.yahoo.com^STI.N&d=c&t=5d&l=on&z=b&q=l table.finance.yahoo.com^sti.n&g=d Therefore this indicator and some additional sentiment data like the rise in the VIX today with a falling put to call ratio suggests that stocks are vulnerable to a short-term move lower perhaps as early as tomorrow but no later than Wednesday in my opinion. I moved up my time table to a Wednesday sell off at the latest due to the incredibly strong close today. Furthermore any time an index reaches an RSI nearing 70 it is extremely overbought. The SOX is getting close to 70. I guess that this time around the rally is coming in anticipation of the war. You can only push a market so far without expecting it to at least consolidate a while. Ultimately the market will need fundamentally sound reasons to move higher and not just hopes for a short war from a questionable bottom. RtS