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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (29742)	3/18/2003 12:07:26 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, <<Annualized about 2300%>> you probably left another 2300% on the table;0) Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (29742)	3/18/2003 6:14:11 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Good morning Pezz, Dusk Report: Not a single bomb has landed on Freedom Mountain Hong Kong, but I have never-the-less surrendered by converting a dollop of CHF and EURO into HKD. As you know, our HKD is a surrogate of your USD, and it is more conveniently used to buy (a) HK and HK based China shares, (b) paper gold, and (c) CHF, EURO, AUD, CAD currencies in Hong Kong. This latest move back-tracks an earlier move which in turn back-tracks an earlier still move, move, move, move, ... I cannot stop myself ... I have raised HKD allocation to 6.9%, lowered EURO to 3.96, and CHF to 3.98% of gross asset. HKD:CHF 1.3861 USD:EURO 1.0601 YTD NAV gain has been reduced to a mere 0.49% from a January peak of 4.3%. An absolute rout, total disaster, utter defeat, and … oh, lets surrender a little and wait and see. BTW, in hind sight, my earlier and massive liquidation of EURO and wading into CAD was brilliant, else I would not be surrendering, but busy dying. Samo samo for the sell out of the precious ZimPlat, as that outpost is now under heavy pounding. Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (29742)	3/19/2003 4:02:01 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Today’s Report: The situation in Hong Kong is going from bad to worse, and soon the market may clear, as soon as the US real estate debt bubble resolves itself. I am following up my report to you back on December 16th, 2002. Message 18343080 December 16th, 2002 Hello Pezz, Yesterday Afternoon's Report: I checked out a fully decorated (decoration, furniture, wiring, lighting) office suite on the 28th floor of my office building that is for sale by the mortgage holding bank. The area is slightly larger than my own office, view is 5 floors better, decoration is considerably spiffier (hardwood floor and built-in furniture). The rental yield based on asking price is between 7-8%, the asking price is 30% of peak price (1997) and I can pay off in one wallop out of zero interest yielding bank account, or simply sign my name for another nothing % loan in any number of currencies, including the HKD. The mortgage holding bank was asking HKD 2.7 mm (USD 346k) for the office back on December 15th, 2002. The peak transaction price for similar unit in the same building in 1997 was HKD 9 mm (USD 1.15mm). The bank tried to auction the beast this past February with a reserve bid price of HKD 2.2 mm (USD 282k) and failed to elicit a bid higher than reserve price. I am figuring they may have to ultimately let the monster go at around HKD 1.5 mm, or USD 192k. The future looks crimson, exciting, and unimaginable. Hong Kong mortgages have a call feature, in that should the property in question fall below a certain value to debt ratio, the bank can ask the owner to top up on equity by paying down debt, as in a margin call. Should any one bank start doing this to multiple unit real estate owners who may have several mortgage bankers, then all banks may rush for the exit. Chugs, Jay