Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff who wrote (29335)	3/17/2003 7:12:33 PM
From: steve from ihub	Respond to of 30712

let me restate. i found them to be of little value to me (ggg). my trading falls in the middle. i am trying to extend the lenght of my trades, but in this case i am bullish, but expecting some retracement. with my sell signal on ndx i took it and hope ot close it out manana to be prepared to buy da dip. something that hasn't happened yet on this lovely moon shot. steve

To: Jeff who wrote (29335)	3/17/2003 7:21:41 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Well, for bullish scenarios, here's an NDX monthly chart showing a rough re-trace schedule: stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lg!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3!ll14][j6471081,y]&listNum=1 The high of 1155 NDX was a .382 re-trace of the drop from the 1734 NDX Dec. 2001 high to the October 10, 2002 795 NDX low. The next logical step would be either a double top at 1155 or a 50% re-trace to NDX 1264. The double top does not work well, as the COMP is lagging on this advance, so the only logical target that works is 1264 NDX or above. NDX 1307 is an A=C target for the NDX, so anywhere from 1264 to 1307 would work for an upper limit for this ramp. Using the COMP, the 1521 high was a .382 re-trace of the drop from 2098 to 1108. The .50 re-trace is 1603. That lines up with the NDX pretty decent. An A=C is 1666 COMP, so anywhere from 1603 to 1666 would work. This is if we have a bullish ramp at work here. We need to see how this top resolves and what kind of pullback we get to get a handle on it. If we are targeting the COMP gap from 1401-1420 like it appears (why stop 9-points short?), we'd have an NDX double top at around 1100 NDX and a COMP gap fill at a level much below the January top. A .382 re-trace of such a run would take us to the NDX 1042 level, which is near the 1043 pivot high on Friday and the lower part of the old gap. That's a place where shorts and longs will be confused. From what I can see, daily RSI readings at the current level have normally resulted in .382 re-traces off a top, and the local top should be about 25 NDX points above where we're at right now according to normal RSI and ADX progressions. The divergences created since the NDX crossed 1030 last Thursday continue to manifest themselves, and the only way I can see them resolved is at higher levels above the Dec. highs. This does not line up with what I was expecting, but you can't let what you expect interfere with your trading. My recollection in watching the market has been that whatever the NDX does, the COMP usually does sooner or later. The NDX led on the moves down, and it is leading on the way up also. The NDX / COMP divergences need to be respected, as they could come into play in the near future.