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To: GrillSgt who wrote (228698)	3/17/2003 7:39:50 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

A few thoughts on poker and bear market rallies... One of the most valuable lessons that poker offers a trader is the concept of "tight play", e.g., not playing a hand unless your starting cards are sufficiently strong. This is exactly analogous to "waiting for the right pitch" in baseball. It is also analogous to avoiding higher risk situations in trading, such as shorting into the recent downtrend that we've just experienced. Today I was in a poker hand that exemplified this: I was in late position (ie, "the cut-off", or 2nd to last to act position) in a game of hold-em. I had just sat down, it was the first hand I played in. One player limped (called) in front of me. I looked down and saw pocket 6's...hardly a powerhouse hand, but one that can be played advantageously in late position against 1 or 2 opponents. I raised, the button player and small blind threw their hands in. The big blind (who already had one of the now-2-bets-needed-to-call in_, and is a notoriously loose and undisciplined player, called, as did the limper. The flop comes down A(sp) J(sp) 4 (cl). Big blind bets, limper folds, I raise, big blind calls. The "turn card" was an offsuit 9. Big blind checks, I bet, he calls again. The river was an offsuit 5. Big blind checks, I bet....he considers the call for a long time before showing me a Jack as he mucked his hand. In all likelihood, his 2nd card was weak, and he "put" me on an Ace, a "better Jack" (ie, one with a better kicker such as KJ or QJ), or a pair higher than Jacks. I took down a nice pot with the 2nd best hand. The moral of the story is if he had not called my raise in the first place, he wouldn't have been in the uncomfortable position of having to make a call that appeared to be a sure loser. Exactly what happens when you fight the trend in your entries, instead of waiting for the proper technical and sentiment conditions, then watch your position become more and more unsustainable. Strangely, poker more than any other game has loads of these trading-like situations, but that hand reminded me exactly of why traders should "play tight". Regards Patron