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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (9034)	3/17/2003 9:36:18 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95536

From Briefing.com: Updated: 18-Mar-03 - General Commentary - Traders aren't the most advanced thinkers so it's not surprising that the indices have raced higher ahead of the war with Iraq. After having seen what happened just after the outbreak of fighting in the 1991 Gulf War, traders are trying to get a head start on the much anticipated war rally. How else do you explain an 8.8%, three-day surge. Now it's very possible that the indices are running ahead of the underlying fundamentals, especially given that we have no idea how the war with Iraq is going to turn out. Nevertheless, there are a number of very positive developments over the past few days which, when added together, suggest that the sector/market will continue to move higher over the short-term. Among the more notable changes are: Surge in trading activity surrounding the upside breakout. As expected, money now flowing off the sidelines for fear of missing out on next major advance. Given low rate environment and depressed stock prices, natural place for money to wind up is back in equities. Technical tone improving greatly... Nasdaq blew through its 200-day moving average in yesterday's action... Now if can get a few more positive days, 50-day moving average should confirm breakout by moving above the 200-day moving average as well. Right now there is a gap of roughly 6 points. If 50-day moving average can get back above 200-day moving average would be first time it has done so in nearly two years. Participation is broad as evidenced by strength in semis, software, networking, disk drive, wireless and Internet Services. Resilience to negative earnings news. Despite a mountain of negativity, Nasdaq Composite is up more than 4% year-to-date. Has to make the shorts nervous and the bulls just a little excited. Though changes in sentiment and powerful momentum should be enough to underpin index over the short-term, ultimately sustainability of sector rebound comes down to improved earnings. Based on the numerous warnings to date (including a couple last night), tough to get overly excited about the sector's profit potential. Consequently, what gains do occur in reaction to war in Gulf are likely to prove surprisingly limited and short-lived. In fact, don't be surprised if stubborn resistance in the 1400-1420 area acts as first stumbling block. Robert Walberg 5:47PM Monday After Hours price changes vs 4pm ET levels: After the regular session's broad-based rally, buyers have eased off their efforts and have taken a bit of profits as the S&P futures, at 861, are 1 point below fair value, and the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1074, are 5 points below fair value. An Applied Materials (AMAT 13.00 -0.13) workforce reduction announcement, combined with earnings warnings from a handful of technology companies, have taken some steam out of the tech sector's advance in the regular session. Specifically, the world's largest supplier of wafer fabrication solutions to the semiconductor industry announced a corporate realignment plan that includes the elimination of approximately 2,000 positions, or 14% of AMAT's global work force. AMAT expects to reduce its costs by approximately $60 mln in Q3 (July) to a target of approximately $100 mln by Q104 (Jan). As a result, AMAT plans to incur a pretax restructuring charge of up to $425 mln over the next four quarters. Related companies of AMAT include the likes of KLAC and NVLS. 4:11PM Applied Materials trades off on workforce reduction : AMAT -0.10 vs the 4 pm ET close to 13.02 4:05PM Applied Materials to cut 14% of workforce; will take pre-tax charge of $425 mln (AMAT) 13.13 +0.76: Expects to reduce the company's costs by approximately $60 mln in Q3 to a target of approximately $100 million by Q1 of FY04. 9:33AM Juniper Networks: valuation hard to justify - SG Cowen (JNPR) 8.29 -0.19: Although SG Cowen expects JNPR to beat the Q1 consensus of $0.01, they say valuation is hard to justify and they do not believe that rev opportunities from RBOC RFPs are as high as some think. 9:10AM Texas Instruments reaffirms Q1 guidance (TXN) 17.41: -- Update -- Co reaffirms their Q1 outlook in today's 8-K of sequentially flat sales and EPS of $0.06, plus or minus a few cents. 9:08AM Oracle seen posting mixed results (ORCL) 11.94: Pacific Growth expects co to post mixed results and issue conservative guidance with tomorrow's earnings report. Believes co should make $0.10 est due to currency and cost cuts, but that co may be light on revs and licenses. 8:53AM QLogic cut to Equal Weight at ThinkEquity (QLGC) 38.52: The downgrade from Overweight is based on firm's view that co's near-term risk profile has become less attractive, even though early indications are that the MarQ is tracking at the high end of guidance. Concerns are based largely on product transition issues and softer than expected demands for the broader storage industry heading into mid-yr. Firm lowers price target to $42. 7:55AM Silicon Image downgraded at Wachovia (SIMG) 5.47: Wachovia downgrades to Mkt Perform from Outperform based on valuation and a challenging macro environment; sees shares trading at $4.50-6.00 based on 28-38x their FY03 EPS est. 7:52AM Genesis Microchip and Pixelworks enter merger agreement (GNSS) 13.17: The combined company will be called Genesis Pixelworks. Under terms of the agreement, GNSS holders will receive 2.3366 PXLW shares for each of their own. Based on PXLW's closing price, deal values GNSS at $17.87 per share. Excluding merger-related charges, the combination is expected to be accretive to Pixelworks pro forma EPS beginning in the first full quarter of combined operations. GNSS holders will own approx. 62.5% of the new company. Companies will host a conference call at 8:30 ET; dial-in is 800/314-7867 (pass code 746768). Gateway (00C 2.35 -0.05) is also being punished by traders in the extended session for lowering its Q1 (Mar) revenue outlook to $820-850 mln (Multex consensus of $955 mln). GTW is cutting its guidance in conjunction with its latest restructuring plan, which includes $400 min in annual cost reductions, the closure of 80 underperforming stores, and a 17% reduction in GTW's workforce. GTW added that it is projecting a net income loss of $0.62-0.66 per share, which includes restructuring costs of $75-80 mln discussed above, and is thus not comparable to current analysts' estimates. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+GNSS+GTW+INTC+JNPR+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+ORCL+PXLW+QLGC+SIMG+TER+TXN+XLNX+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+^VIX+^VXN+^STI.N+SMH&d=t RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (9034)	3/18/2003 6:38:35 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts February 2003 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.99 SAN JOSE, Calif., March 18, 2003 -- The North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $782 million in orders in February 2003 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.99, according to the February 2003 Express Report published today by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 0.99 means that $99 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. The three-month average of worldwide bookings in February 2003 was $782 million. The bookings figure is six percent above the revised January 2003 level of $739 million and six percent above the $737 million in orders posted in February 2002. The three-month average of worldwide billings in February 2003 was $793 million. The billings figure is one percent above the revised January 2003 level of $784 million and three percent below the February 2002 billings level of $818 million. "Bookings of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment have remained essentially flat for the last six months and as a result, a number of equipment manufacturers have announced recently plans for further consolidating and restructuring of operations and product offerings," said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "While the bookings outlook appears sluggish, over 20 new fabs are expected to begin production in the next two years." The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average billings for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars. semi.org!OpenDocument

To: Gottfried who wrote (9034)	3/18/2003 7:26:08 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95536

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