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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (1483)	3/18/2003 5:50:14 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48801

Les Do you have a link for you last post, or at least who wrote it? Don

To: Les H who wrote (1483)	3/20/2003 11:09:09 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48801

War Diary: Friday, March 22, 2003 Mar 21, 2003 The March 20 attempt to decapitate the Iraqi government appears to have failed. The U.S. government now seems to be acknowledging that Hussein survived the attacks. Indeed, he may not have been at the target to begin with. It appears likely that CIA Director Geoge Tenet had some intelligence, realized that the price of missing was relatively low, the value of success high, and took the shot. But there appears to be more to the story than this. Defense Department officials announced that the "shock and awe" campaign had been postponed, pending developments within the Iraqi leadership. That means that something is still going on in Baghdad. It might be that Hussein is considering leaving. It might be that there is the possibility of a coup. It might be that the United States is simply doing psychological operations to undermine confidence in Baghdad. It is impossible to know. What we do know is that the massive air campaign that had been forecast and certainly was within the U.S. capability to deliver is at least partially on hold, pending something. Reports from the battlefield indicate odd fits and starts, particularly in the air war. Reports from the navy are that missions were laid on and then aborted at the last minute. There appeared to be a certain tentativeness in the ground war as well. Now, there are excellent reasons for cautious entry into battle. But there also might be something still unfolding in Baghdad. On the ground, there appears to be an attack probing toward Iraqi positions in the north. There were reports that the 7th Cavalry Division had encountered Iraqi tanks -- possibly to the northwest of Kuwait. It also has been reported that A-10 aircraft have been called in to carry out air strikes. A-10s are tank-killers, which means that there is armor somewhere ahead of coalition forces. This is armor that hasn't yet surrendered. The 7th Cavalry halted early in the evening and then resumed its advance, westward. That seems to indicate that it is moving toward the Euphrates crossings. As readers of our war plan know, we had expected probing of Iraqi positions to the north early in the war. The one thing that Gen. Tommy Franks does not know at this moment is how intensely the Iraqi divisions north of Kuwait will fight. Because of that, he also has no indication of how the Iraqi forces as a whole might fight. He is pushing northward with U.S. and British marines. At some point they will come into contact with Iraqi forces, and then they will better be able to assess the situation. The 101st Airborne is assembled in tactical areas, but has not deployed. It appears it is being held in reserve, to be committed in airmobile operations as the situation becomes clearer. At the moment, it appears the United States is proceeding cautiously. It is increasing its bombing campaign, but signaling that it is holding back with the most devastating part -- likely in order to see how the leadership of Iraq will respond to the war. Ground forces in Kuwait have spent this part of the night probing forward, halting and calling in air support when needed. We would expect the northern thrust to halt at daybreak if it doesn't encounter the main Iraqi force. The coalition preference is for combat to take place at night, where U.S. forces have appropriate training and experience. If that were the case, it would indicate that the first major encounter of coalition and Iraqi forces could be delayed until Friday night. So far we know that massive surrenders have not taken place. We also know that Iraq has not used chemical weapons, nor set fire to the oil fields. In a sense, neither side has made any decisive moves on the first real day of the war. Each side seems to be waiting for the other to show its hand.