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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2325)	3/18/2003 6:30:53 PM
From: Alan Bell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Justa, You suggest that a good outcome to the war is priced into the market. But the market doesn't like uncertainty. And there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty involved with the war. If things go well, this is uncertainty is resolved, maybe allowing the market to go higher.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2325)	3/18/2003 7:28:30 PM
From: Dave Shares	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

I do not post to this thread and have not posted more than a couple of times in the past several years, but I have respect for Mr. Brinker and what he has done for his followers who are investors. The importance of Mr. Brinker's January, 2000 call was that it was a wake up call to investors to move to the sidelines. The October QQQ call was a trade recommendation and I think if Mr. Brinker had it to do over again, he would not have made a trade recommendation to his followers who are investors. Note that his January call was early by two months, and came before a blow off top of great magnitude. I remember the posts back then about how wrong he was in light of the gains in early 2000. I don't think that the investors back then who got out feel badly about missing the top in light of the overall savings from the carnage that followed. Similarly, given what others observe, this call could be early as well and could precede a sharper drop below the lows yet seen, maybe not. The point simply being, and I think the point has been made, it does not happen without some time and preferably some more demonstrable capitulation. I agree that re-entering on weakness is much smarter, and I would be inclined to think that phasing entry over the next few months would also be prudent; during the bull market, Mr. Brinker always spoke about dollar cost averaging. I am not sure that one should invest differently now, albeit this is money that may not stay in the market for more than a year or two or three.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2325)	3/19/2003 7:22:25 AM
From: J. M. Blackburn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Justa, Thanks, what you are thinking goes along in general with my thoughts. I committed 25% on Tuesday and cashed out about 20% on Friday. Maybe I was trying to be too cute? The gains for a couple of days where great but of course now I am concerned about reentry. Not being able to move as fast as some of the good traders around here, I think I'll be very careful with the use of shorts if a trend change might be near. Bob did tell at least one caller this weekend not to chase the market, if I heard correctly. This would go along with your thoughts. Also, your post stimulated some good replies from Alan and Dave. Good Luck. Appreciate the reply. Jim

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2325)	3/19/2003 10:12:13 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 10065

FWIW, even though the Nasdaq is red here and has been all morning, there is a chance we can go higher. But I still think we should turn here today or tomorrow.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2325)	4/5/2003 1:02:08 PM
From: Thunder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

JW, Whatever happened last week was not the beginning of a cyclical bull move in my opinion but rather, perhaps, part of a potential bottoming process IMO. Would I be correct in concluding that the potential bottoming process is for a cyclical bottom and not secular in your view? Additionally, do you think the October lows were the secular bottom for the Nasdaq? Thanks for your time.