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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9072)	3/19/2003 10:54:27 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

RtS, >Unfortunately it has acted that way three times in the last three years. So I ask you what will be different this time?< The market may be wrong again, but it won't be wrong forever - i.e. we shouldn't extrapolate the past. On the other hand, the past is all we know for sure. The $42 will help. Often buying begets buying. Lower oil prices should happen if the first Gulf war is a guide. But we shouldn't extrapolate the past. <vbg> bayarea.com Businesses must slim down even further [see AMAT]. Old computers with Win95 operating systems crash often and waste much paid time. They must be replaced. Gottfried

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9072)	3/19/2003 4:57:07 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

Here's a bullish scenario which would suggest that now is a time to buy. Corporate spending is being held up by the clouds of war. However, the interest rate environment is very accommodative to investment at this time. A "relatively quick" resolution in Iraq would encourage many who have put projects on the back burner to move forward with their plans. Oil prices have started to drop and would also find their way down to the mid/low 20s using the "quick" assumption, freeing up more capital to be used for new projects. Travel worries could also be reduced substantially, adding some strength to a very weak segment of the world's economy. Refinancing hit another record high last week, adding more liquidity (or free cash flow) to the "average" consumer. Corporations have significantly cut costs and tighten their collective belts, which would suggest that any substantial improvement in the general economic trend would translate into higher profitability and improved earnings (and relative valuations). All of these trends might encourage those with 401Ks to increase their retirement savings plan deductions. Just a few possibilities IF things go "quickly" in Iraq...