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To: BirdDog who wrote (9099)3/19/2003 1:49:52 PM
From: sandeep  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10157
 
I think that the market is betting on one of the following -
1) Saddam flees or gets assassinated OR
2) Iraqi troops/citizens don't fight because they don't like saddam anyway.

I think that these assumptions are very likely to be correct. There is HUGE downside if both fail...



To: BirdDog who wrote (9099)3/19/2003 1:52:49 PM
From: heehee1  Respond to of 10157
 
BirdDog.. <The problem is that everyone is expecting this to be a cake walk>

I agree. The above assumption is premature. If war becomes urban fighting in Iraq city, which I suspect it will, our task will be extremely difficult. Also, per CNN last night, Iraq army is 300K strong. If that is correct, it is much stronger than I had expected.

For the sakes of the innocent lives effected by this event, I pray for a cakewalk. A quick cakewalk.