Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (229440)	3/19/2003 5:36:53 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

and you thought it was a war rally -s-

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (229440)	3/19/2003 5:45:19 PM
From: Gut Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Amerika's favorite Spyware at it again foxnews.com

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (229440)	3/19/2003 6:10:49 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

I used to think there was something diabolical going on -- now I just think they are all numbnuts ... story.news.yahoo.com

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (229440)	3/19/2003 7:14:30 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Gold is doomed. Barfing is bullish on it Sector Watch - Precious Metals : The sharp decline in spot gold prices over the past few weeks has investors asking if it's time to flee the precious metals sector altogether. Briefing.com's short answer to that question is "no." Now for the argument to support that answer. First of all it's important to understand the forces behind gold's precipitous drop. For one, we've witnessed an unwinding of the war premium. Much of the momentum behind the surge to $390 per ounce was due to the threat of war with Iraq. As we move closer to the actual outbreak of war, that premium has been pulled out of gold much the way the war premium has been pulled out of the oil market. Of course, assumption behind this move is that the US will achieve its objectives quickly and without serious or immediate repercussions. If those assumptions prove false, gold could easily spike higher. Should also be noted that resolution of the Gulf crisis doesn't resolve problems in N. Korea, India/Pakistan, etc. In other words, the geopolitical climate likely to remain hot. Rebound in the dollar has also weighed on gold. Typically, a strong dollar seen as negative for gold. Here again, however, it's important to view the dollar's bounce in the context of its broader decline. Given the US's current account deficit, the general weakness in the stock market and the low rate environment, there's little reason to think that dollar will sustain its upward momentum. If/when the dollar resumes its slide, gold should renew its ascent. Technical factors were also behind the metals sharp retreat. Surge to $390 left gold extremely overextended. Though speed and scope of retreat has been a bit alarming, important support levels have held. Gold futures currently testing their 200-day moving average. There's also congestive support in the $335-$320 area. As long as gold holds above this floor (and deeply oversold short-term technicals suggest that it will) the long-term bullish tone will remain intact. Finally, action in gold stocks suggested that the metal was due for a correction as gold indices failed to confirm move to new high in the base metal. Such action was highly unusual and provided a strong signal of a short-term top. However, we are now seeing gold shares begin to act better than the metal - a sign that a bottom could be in place. Note that the metals stocks have pulled back from their early year highs by an average of about 23%. With most at or near major supports, any rebound in the base metal should trigger a nice rebound in the gold/metals stocks. So while sector rotation related to the war rally might continue to depress gold over the short-term, Briefing.com contends that most of the downside is already out of the metal. Meanwhile, we expect renewed dollar weakness, a tense geopolitical climate and low interest rates to continue providing long-term support. Reduced hedging activity, a favorable demand/supply equation and less active central bank selling also bode well for gold. For these reasons, Briefing.com remains long-term bullish on gold and the precious metals sector. As such, we are reiterating our slight outperform rating. See Sector Ratings page. -- Robert Walberg, Briefing.com