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To: Shack who wrote (69064)3/19/2003 9:33:43 PM
From: ajtj99  Respond to of 209892
 
Well, since we're about as overbought as we've been in a bear market, I would suggest some middle ground here. Yes, we could be in the big "C", as I see no other way to rectify the divergences in the NDX and COMP right now (COMP needs to get above 1522 to rectify that).

That said, I think whatever happens there needs to be a pullback within the next day or so to at least around NDX 1042. Ideally that would come from this level, or a double top at 1100.

Divergences and progression:

NDX made a new post-Feb high at 1030, COMP followed 2-days later with a high above 1353.

NDX filled gap at 1041-1057, COMP is knocking on the door at the gap at 1401-1420.

If the COMP gap is filled, NDX will make a double top at the Jan high at 1105, COMP will still be about 45-points below the Jan. high. That divergence would need to be addressed.

If the COMP makes a double top at the Jan high 1468, the NDX will likely be close to a double top at the Dec. high at 1155. That divergence would need to be addressed.

The NDX leads on the way up and the way down. The higher low on the NDX was an example. The only way to rectify all of these divergences is to make a recovery high above 1522 COMP, which would likely mean 1600 COMP and 1264 NDX.

I've watched the NDX/COMP divergences for a while now, and it has been a valuable tool for trading.



To: Shack who wrote (69064)3/19/2003 11:55:59 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
OEX is up over a percent today and so is the VIX! (again) WTH is up with that? Got skepticism?