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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (83709)	3/19/2003 10:54:40 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Paul, the current reading of my model results in a winning trade about 2 out of three trades on average. I will go to 50% short based on model readings associated with a higher percentage of winning trades or a if the indicators come off their current readings and then re-confirm. The maximum short position I will go to is 75% and that occurs when the model is reading such that historically 85% trades have been successful. I must admit that for the last couple years, if I was more aggressive on my shorts I would have made a better return. My system is more aggressive on going long and a similar reading as today but on the positive side would put me at 50% long (versus 25% short for the same short reading). There is some basis (and fuzzy math) I once used to back up being more aggressive on longs than shorts. However, it is looking fuzzier and fuzzier as this bear market drags on (g). Tom