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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (84141)	3/20/2003 10:12:25 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 281500

CBS reporting deep skepticism in pentagon that saddam is alive. They think they got him and that this mornings saddam was a body double. It will take hours to confirm or deny. If saddam in fact dead, once made public could avoid war. Then you could have a junta(colonels not generals) who could invite US in to take out wmds. They could promise elections and maintain power for a defined time. Exiles would be invited to return. Iraqs Fault Line could open up the prisons and so on. No casualties would be a beautiful thing. Perhaps a couple of Rev Guard elite troops would resist. Mike

To: paul_philp who wrote (84141)	3/20/2003 10:30:52 AM
From: JohnM	Respond to of 281500

This is the first test of America as the worlds sole superpower and much will rest on the outcome. I don't think so. I think Bosnia and Kosovo were the first tests. The evidence of their success is still ambiguous, but profoundly to the plus side. The US maintained coalition participation, particularly in the latter case, without generating a condition for other powers to organize against them. The efforts put a stop to large scale ethnic cleansing. Though belated in both instance. Terribly so in the first. I see the Bush invasion of Iraq as the second and an indication that the much better policies and outcomes of the first are not bipartisan. The kind of bipartisan support for foreign policy that emerged after WWII, however feeble, unpredictable, and challenged, it was, is well down the road. In fact, given Iraq, it could well not emerge. Could rather be in the forefront of the disagreements between the parties.