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To: GrillSgt who wrote (9254)	3/20/2003 5:30:53 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

What is Ds? M

To: GrillSgt who wrote (9254)	3/21/2003 12:01:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10157

From Brian. Hi All, I've updated the chart list tonight with the short-term counts. Here is the link again: stockcharts.com Not much to say about the short-term gyrations though. The last week has been a mess, but it is countable in terms of EW. The high today was 879, which repelled the S&P more than once, as KodiakBear noted today. From my point of view, the wave C (green on the 15-min & 60-min charts) equaled wave A (green) right at 879. This rally has taken the form of a Zigzag so far, and in zigzags this is the common relationship between wave A and wave C. In this case, both are 52 points. The Put/Call 20 DMA has fallen through the floor, and the Transports closed just below their 50% retracement. The one thing I wanted to include in this post is the debate surrounding the count of this rally. There are some who claim that this is a wave C rally from the October lows, where wave A was the rise from the October low to the December 2 high, wave B was the decline from the December high to last weeks low, and we are now in wave C – which should take the S&P up to 955 or possibly even 1090. It would certainly be nice to know whether this type of rise is in the cards. The main reason why this does not seem likely is that the supposed wave B (the decline from December 2 to last week) counts 5 waves much better than 3 waves. In every correction in EWP, there are no wave B's that count as a 5 wave decline/advance. Here is a chart: tinyurl.com I think that a wave C rally is unlikely due to the count of the decline from 954 in December, and that this rally is much more likely to be a wave 2 which looks to be mostly over. If there had been a pullback at some point in the last few days, I think it would have been likely that another wave up was in store. But the longer we hang out up here without pulling back, the more unlikely it seems. In fact, Bob Prechter sent out a note today in which he spelled out his reasons why he thought we were near a high for this wave 2, and encouraged a 200% short position. He tends to think in terms of positioning for months at a time though (as opposed to daily or weekly), and readily admits there may be some more upside left. If memory serves, he made the same comments about a year ago. Take it FWIW. All the Best, Brian