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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29811)	3/20/2003 7:48:48 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Maybe we'll help Tibet out next, seeing were in such a mood to help those being killed by despotic leaders. Or maybe we'll give Saadam most favored trade status? DAK

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29811)	3/20/2003 8:15:20 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

It's simple Jay. Bush's God trumps all others.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29811)	3/20/2003 9:29:08 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

“The geographical size, population, and natural resources of the British Isles would suggest that it ought to possess 3 or 4% of the world’s wealth and power, all other things being equal; but it is precisely because all other things are never equal that a peculiar set of circumstances permitted the British Isles to expand to possess, say 25% of the world’s wealth and power in its prime; and since those favorable circumstances have disappeared, all that it has being doing is returning down to its more ‘natural’ size. In the same way, it may be argued that the geographical extent, population, and natural resources of the U.S. suggest that it ought to possess perhaps 16 or 19% of the world’s wealth and power, but because of historical and technical circumstances favourable to it, that share rose to 40% or more by 1945; and what we are witnessing at the moment is the early decades of the ebbing away from that extraordinarily high figure to a more ‘natural’ share.” Kennedy Paul, (1988), The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Fontana Press, London.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29811)	3/20/2003 9:38:19 PM
From: pezz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<< Pope and Dalai Lama must be wrong,>> Wouldn't be the first time.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29811)	3/20/2003 9:44:08 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

War fears spark economic gloom Build up to war triggers fall in house prices, reduced consumer spending and slowed lending growth, industry results show. Staff and agencies Thursday March 20, 2003 War fears cast a cloud over the UK economy today after it emerged that consumers had continued to rein back spending. High street sales figures in February fell for a second month in a row amid uncertainty over the economy and an Iraq conflict. And elsewhere data showed the first fall in house prices in two years. Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec bank, said: "It's clear that the threat of war in February undermined consumer spending to some degree. The question is, by how much?" Today's data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed retail sales volumes eased 0.1% in February after a 1% decline in January. The fall left year-on-year sales growth at 3.2% - the lowest rate since July 1999. Simon Rubinsohn, economist at fund manager Gerrard, said general economic uncertainty was also playing a part in the slowdown. "Consumers are taking things much more cautiously," he said. "They've been spending like crazy for a couple of years and they're now no longer prepared to do so." War and economic fears were also blamed by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) for a fall in house prices in England and Wales. While February's slide was relatively modest, it was still the largest recorded drop in eight years. London was hardest hit, with prices falling at the fastest pace for a decade. At the same time, overall levels of lending growth showed signs of slowing, falling to £17.8bn in February from £19.4bn the previous month, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said. Meanwhile, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said the prospects for manufacturers remained bleak after expectations for output hit their lowest level in a year. Ian McCafferty, the CBI's chief economic adviser, said the findings put added pressure on the chancellor to help manufacturers in next month's Budget. Today's data will provide further concern for the Bank of England, which in the past has seen consumer confidence balance the ailing industrial sector. Economists said concerns over the recent rise in inflation were likely to prevent another cut in interest rates next month.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29811)	3/21/2003 2:32:11 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

War good for emerging markets: Emerging-market bond funds draw top inflows By Julie Earle in New York Published: March 19 2003 19:52 \| Last Updated: March 19 2003 19:52 Investors are pouring a record amount of money into emerging-market bond funds, according to data trackers. Last week, the funds, which number about 170 with $907bn in assets, attracted net inflows of $173.6m, or a 1.8 per cent gain in total assets, according to EmergingPortfolio.com Fund Research. In the year to date, the funds had inflows of $864.7m, a 10.4 per cent increase in total assets, as investors sought a haven from equities. Analysts will be keeping a close watch on weekly data, due today, that are expected to show further inflows in the wake of President George W. Bush's declaration on Monday night of an imminent war with Iraq. "I will be surprised if more certainty about the situation in Iraq and a possible equities rally reverses flows into emerging-market bond funds," said Brad Durham, managing director of fund research at EmergingPortfolio.com. He said investors were responding to the emerging-market debt rally, now in its sixth month. He believes emerging-market bond funds have recently been the best-performing global asset class apart from gold. The funds have returned 6 per cent in the year to date and 11 per cent annualised over the past 10 years. "There is a lot of upside left given the fact that Russia, which is the biggest weighting among bond funds, is still within striking distance of investment-grade status," said Mr Durham. Brazil has also recently been upgraded by credit ratings agencies. He says the funds were now being treated more like a long-term asset class, rather than a cyclical play. Mohamed El-Erian, who manages the Pimco Emerging Markets Bond fund, with $650m in assets, also expected these funds to continue to perform well. He said the yield factor was attracting investors. In the six months to the end of February, emerging-market bond funds returned 18 per cent. "There is scope for further strong returns but they are subject to volatility. We live in an extremely fluid world," he said. Emerging-market bond performance has beaten emerging-market stocks. In the past three years, stocks are down 15.8 per cent while bonds returned 11.1 per cent on an annualised basis. Mr El-Erian said risks in emerging-market bonds funds were "not an imaginary thing" and that a country could default or get downgrades. He has recently been selling eastern European bonds and buying Latin American bonds because he believes Brazil's economy is improving. Mr El-Erian said he was encouraged by spending cuts by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. "With Lula, things have turned out better than expected," he said.