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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (33611)	3/21/2003 12:08:59 AM
From: Challo Jeregy	Respond to of 57110

interesting - just as I was downloading this, a commentator on Fox said "Peace in Iraq may be more dangerous than war" ==================================== The Worden Report (Thursday, March 20, 2003) Kibitzing This entire situation has a weird feel to it. We had a little of it in the Gulf War, but nothing like this. We sit and watch a war on live TV. Market players sit on the sidelines before personal computers, kibitzing and betting. The leaders of the principal adversaries stand up and make statements to the world. The U. S. President drops a remark that the war may last longer than some people are thinking, and the market responds to the tune of over 100 points. Putin throws out an insult or two and the market shudders. It's like the old days in the boardrooms, where a lot of old codgers would gather every day and make side-bets with one another. “I got two bits that says GM hits 50 before 40!” I can't help thinking of how many people, including members of congress and Abraham Lincoln himself, rode out to watch the battle of Bull Run – which they believed would lead to a quick, clean victory. I think it was there that a young officer named Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. saved Lincoln's life by pulling him physically out of harm's way. The battle didn't end the war, of course, but ushered in four years of violence and more American deaths that occurred in any war before or since. At least it isn't dangerous to sit in front of the TV, where you can drink beer and watch the real war and the propaganda war simultaneously. If you have a computer, you can bet your convictions in the market. You can weigh the discounting value of, say, two extra weeks of warfare. You can assess the probability that it was really Saddam who spoke on TV last night and convert that into, say, the number of points a wringer is worth in the QQQ. The PE is giving way to the PSA (price divided by the shock and awe of battle). For guidance you have a host of retired officers – everything from generals down to light colonels – smiling confidently right there on your screen. -DW