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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (43807)	3/21/2003 12:36:18 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

unconfirmed sources in Kuwait hinting the possibility of wholesale surrender within the next 12 hours. Saddam is totally incapacitated and has lost control, the senior Baath officers looking for deals to save their skins. In private emails for what it is worth...

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (43807)	3/24/2003 9:06:55 PM
From: JEB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Follow the oil. Turkey has started searching all the way back to old Ottoman Empire treaties for evidence that they are the rightful owners of the Northern oil fields of Mosul and Kirkuk (reported 01/06/03). Turkey has $77 billion + in debt to service and is getting desperate. It's no wonder they want control of the Kurdish Northern area of Iraq.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (43807)	4/16/2004 11:06:34 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 50167

Hi IQBAL LATIF; Re your extensive comments from March 21st of last year: Re: "The war on Iraq will be an extremely short one." Nope. Re: "Iraqis are renowned by their fellow Arabs for being a brutal, treacherous & traitorous people (a harsh generalisation indeed!)." Yes, but why would that have supported a prediction that the war would be short? Re: "Baghdad has always been the focal point of Iraq and its successful capture will be the end of any resistance." Baghdad seems to have liberated large portions of itself. Maybe it never was captured. Re: "Baghdad's capture will rid opposition forces of a nexus point and the architectural spread of Baghdad means that its wide avenues (as opposed to the cloistered streets of Mogadishu) will inhibit the urban fighting as seen in Somalia." If we don't see urban fighting in Baghdad, it will only be because we've given up trying to pacify it. Re: "Once Baghdad and more specifically Saddam's authority collapses (bombing his bunker is the first step and the Americans claims he was inside at the time) Iraqi resistance will fold like a deck of cards." Saddam's been in jail for months and the resistance is multiplying like bunny rabbits. Re: "Through a successful victory in Iraq, Bush and Blair will emerge as undeniable victors." They're now fighting for their political survival, mostly because of the fiasco in Iraq. Re: "Casting forth moral righteousness in a world seemingly blurred in shades of gray, Blair's domestic troubles and Bush's foreign handicaps will be things of the past." Nope. Instead, the discussions in the newspapers are mostly over the subtle point of whether they were fools or liars about WMDs and the whole idea of invading Iraq with too few troops. Re: "I would go short on oil and long on the dollar." I would guess that this cost you dearly. Re: "Oil prices collapsed to $10 a barrel following the Gulf War ..." I guess this wasn't the Gulf War. I'm paying record high prices for gasoline. Re: "Iraq will become the pearl of the Middle East, ..." Calling Iraq the "armpit" of the Middle East would be a compliment right now. Re: "... slushing in aid ..." Almost all our money is spent on our troops. The UN left the country last summer. Now hostage taking is cutting down on the brave few who stayed around. Re: "... and oil money ..." I don't know what the latest uptick in violence is doing to oil production but I can't imagine that it's helping. Re: "... it will be allowed to continue its natural evolution along geopolitical fault lines without impediment from tyrants such as Saddam Hussein." Well you're right that it will be allowed to continue its natural evolution, but it looks like Saddam Hussein was part of that natural evolution. The US military is now looking to hire ex Iraqi officers in order to try and whip the New Iraqi Army into a condition where they'll kill Iraqi guerilla fighters for the United States. I doubt that they'll be able to do it. Re: "Kurdistan will become a reality (political or cultural it remains to be seen) ..." I doubt that the Kurdistan will last one year after the US pulls out. Re: "... and Shi'ism will once again flourish in the southerly regions ..." Yes, in fact they're flourishing so well that we're in danger of having our supply lines cut. Re: "... life will be good for Iraqis ..." Doesn't quite seem that way yet. Re: "... and they need only thank Mr Bush." It's too bad that western pollsters are too scared to leave their hotels. Heck, maybe Iraqis enjoyed seeing the pictures that Al Jazeera published out of Falloujah, but we may never know. -- Carl