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To: Paul Senior who wrote (16668)3/22/2003 1:05:58 AM
From: jeffbas  Respond to of 78615
 
Paul, I don't mean to twist a knife in you on HRC. However, I think that one is instructive. In my experience, the first warning sign is frequently not the last. Ignoring that from time to time over the years has probably cost me more money than almost any other mistake. In the case of HRC, the plunge from the teens to $7 last summer on adverse news was the first sign of trouble, and it could/should have been sold at as high as $12 on the subsequent rally.



To: Paul Senior who wrote (16668)3/22/2003 10:44:07 PM
From: Bob Rudd  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78615
 
Paul, I made 2 clear mistakes with HRC: After posting several message about a year an a half ago warning of the potential of some capricious change in medicare reimbursement seriously damaging the profit picture, I later ignored my concerns and went in - This cost me about 70% on the initial purchase when the reimbursement announcement hit. The second mistake was ignoring the clear signal when Scrushy dumped stock [I beleive your comment at the time was something like - 'I spit on him'] within a month of the announcement, then steadfastly denied he had any idea that there would be any change in reimbursement...This was Scrushy's way of announcing to the world that he was a first-class, card-carrying WEASAL. Did I, at that time, trust him and his managment team? Hell no! But I rationalized and stayed with the stock which will probably cost another 80% from where it closed recently.
I realize it's difficult to get a bargain without some negatives, but one of the negatives I'm going to be a lot less tolerant of is a management I don't trust, whose interests [ownership] aren't aligned with mine, who acts in ways detrimental to shareholders. In short, my weasal detector is set to 'sensitive' and if I see signs of weasal behavior, I'm gonna bail a lot quicker. No small factor in this shift, is decreased confidence in auditors - I'm coming to see the auditing process as no protection whatsoever from a management willing to cook the books. So it gets back to management integrity...and any clue that that's lacking...I'm moving on.