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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (15220)	3/21/2003 9:16:42 PM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 89467

Why Are We Here? As a history buff, I find the question and the article to be of intrinsic interest. Moreover, from the “Past is prolog” perspective, the answers to the question may give us some insight into the future. It is that future that I’m now considering. There was never much doubt that the American military could “take” the Iraqi military. The only question was at what cost on both sides. In war, unforeseen events are to be anticipated. So while surprises may yet occur, I’m willing to hypothesize that this war will be over by the end of this month. So what’s next? Those that have followed my market commentary on this thread, know that I believe we are in the early stages of a secular bear market. Hence, LTB&H is (IMO) a grossly inadvisable market strategy. But I believe some of the techniques of that strategy may be applicable to apprising our Iraq “colony”. Conveniently starting at the beginning of this coming quarter, a report card should be initiated just as it would be for a new investment. The first card, due at the end of this month, will assess the effects of the war and the “ground zero” state of the occupation. At each quarter thereafter, then a reassessment should be made. During the last secular bull, I would make predictions of what I expected to happen when for the investment I was holding. If reality didn’t track with the predictions, it was time to reassess the investment. In that light, today I began to think about the future of Iraq. Those that have read my posts here know I expect reprisals against any American occupation. My current thinking is sometime in the second quarter of the occupation, a “significant” reprisal event will occur. No one has a window open to the future, so only “time will tell”, but I find such concrete, testable predictions to be a useful guide as to whether I’m on the right track. As usual, JMO lurqer