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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (29870)	3/22/2003 1:36:15 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

KastelCo, I'm surprised Hussein has not tried to release some WMD. He has nowhere to go, nowhere to hide Your statement presumes that you might believe that Saddam is still alive. Even in the highest levels of the US government, that is something that has not yet been determined. And there is a lot of circumstantial "evidence" that might indicate that Saddam is indeed either dead, or totally out of communications with his armies, his people and his staff. The Iraqi military effort is totally disorganized at this point, firing blindly and without purpose, which could also be indicative that it is without leadership. The Iraqi government "machine" is in shambles, another possible indication that leadership has been removed. No one has seen or heard from Saddam since the first missiles were fired, presumably hitting one of his known "safe" houses near the river in the capital. The videotape of Saddam that was released contained no information on anything specific that occurred, leading to the possibility that the videotape was pre-recorded unknown hours or days before being released to the media. Iffy information exists that many Iraqis within Saddam's inner circle of friends and protectors have been engaging in separate negotiations for surrender and peace, something that presumably would not happen were Saddam still in firm control. Foreign nationals are still within the inner parts of the capital, and not being held captive, though they are sanctioned and reporters' news feeds are screened. Again, were Saddam still in firm control, presumably at a minimum, these folks would have been captured long ago and used as hostages for negotiating purposes. Food, water and other life sustaining supplies within Iraq have not been swept from the merchant class and redistributed to suit Saddam's needs and purposes. Were he still in control, it is reasonable to presume that he would have done so by now. And there is much more circumstantial evidence that Saddam is no longer in control. My personal belief is that he was indeed either killed or critically injured in the initial missile attack, which is just a strong suspicion on my part, but the guy never missed a television opportunity back in the early '90s, and now he's nowhere to be found. KJC

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (29870)	3/23/2003 12:14:47 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I doubt Iraq has a lot left of these weapons. They certainly don't seem to have any long-range missiles left. The US will look bad if they don't turn up anything - I suppose there are some. Using them will reveal to the world that the US was right. They want the UN etc. to still intervene and stop the attack some how. I would suppose that Iraq's strategy would be to take on the US/UK force once it crosses out of the desert and into the agricultural regions between the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers and/or guerilla attacks which we are seeing a little of now. They can't control Kurdistan anyway so was unlikely to see them trying to resist in the southern desert area either. I would think it a mistake not to occupy places like Basra, one has to think they know what they are doing but seems the potential there just to end up in a guerilla quagmire. And the longer the US is there the more resistance that there will be as people may no longer be defending this regime but fighting the occupiers as against Israel in South Lebanon.... JMHO moom