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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (29884)	3/22/2003 7:29:33 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Good evening Pezz, I am all caught up on my sleep, some 18 hours out of the last 48, after much soaking, steaming, reflexology, and watermellon juices. <<Calm down ... gettin hysterical ... panicking ... don't understand the situation>> I have done a stress test by setting gold/oz price at USD 280, and see that my 0.08% NAV gain will then implode to a 2.48% NAV loss. As I had mentioned many times, every percentage point of NAV is worth defending, else it places the next percentage at risk, and so I ask myself a question, namely, in a game, what would be the optimum move for the situation I now find myself in, where euphoric folks are bidding up tech shares even as Put premiums refuse to recognize that the downside has apparently receded (i.e. QCOM pcquote.com ) and where option bets pegs the future expected value at less than the current ask/bid iqauto.com ? The point about QCOM made above is that the greater market is either (a) not believing in the sustained rise of QCOM to current level and slipping on the slope of hope, or (b) is climbing a wall of worry. (a) I can sell down my paper gold hoard, and hope to gradually offset such sales with sequential and massive short sale of NEM, FCX, HMY, and AEM puts; (b) I can hold still, tough it out, and buy more paper gold should prices drop further; or (c) I can ignore my large paper gold position and think of it as just another parking currency, which it obviously is, and focus on playing put/call straddle on newly purchased gold shares. As of this moment, I am doing (c) and so I am not exactly panicky or hysterical, yet. That comes later, when gold is at 250/oz (NAV loss then at 4.19%, and I do not like that at all). Chugs, Jay