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Politics : Stop the War! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChrisJP who wrote (2137)	3/23/2003 10:40:50 PM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21614

It won't stay there. I think this may even be the last time we see the Dow over 8000. It could be argued that the parabolic phase of the bubble started in 1994. In Dec '94 the Dow put in a sneaky little 9 day long trend acceleration line with certain particular characteristics with the 2nd anchor at 3638 and advancing at 2.4 points/day. There was a particular piece of legislation passed at that time allowing for the foolish loosening of corporate accounting practices. That's being rolled back now. The 9/21/2001 low was the first test of that '94 line. One cool thing about the entire parabolic rise then break is the % drop from the market peak was the same as the % bounce off the '94 line. I kicked ass on that cuz I had seen the same thing happen on ALOT of individual stocks. Still, I was awed at seeing it happen with an index. It's damn consistent when one of those sneaky little trend accelerations goes parabolic then breaks. anyway... For the last 8 or 9 months the Dow's been using that acceleration line more or less as a regression line...swinging below, then back above it. The trouble here, technically at least, is that the 200 dMA went into a downward acceleration then finally fell below that '94 line several weeks ago. At the time the MA accelerated downward it hit me that there would likely be only one last gasp on the Dow to move over the '94 line. We're seeing that now.