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To: TobagoJack who wrote (30024)	3/24/2003 10:56:57 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

Using the same encryption for my answer to your Top-Secret message;... Re >> We must take account of exogenous events << ... (glurp - here goes my coffee all over the kbd) you mean Martians are landing? Except for them, I dont see any difference between endo end exo. Anymore. So many things connected and waiting for the neighbouring domino. >>primary and first order responses to exogenous events<< and >>the probable range and most likely second order responses<< As you hint yourself in d) "Always an engineer", I see a big system of partial differential equations getting an exciting set of border conditions. I just know it's Teotwawki and my genes are sending me all-too-well-known signals I can best describe by pbs.org re "I'm guessing that" There's a thought that keeps coming back, again and again: the neocons fanfared loud the end of the "Post-Wesphalian-Peace-World". Fact is (I'm afraid) their BS blather may have a bitter kernel of truth - except that we're not that far yet. We may be into the first few months of the next 30-years war. There may be some, saying "Yeah, right, Armaggedon, here I come" (I see the B52 skipper from Dr Strangelove, riding the bomb down to its final destination,in my mind). I just cant seem to be able to share their enthusiasm. ibiblio.org ibiblio.org ibiblio.org ibiblio.org This is a decidedly negative and bleak primeval scream. Well, I just can say it's no fun to be a canary locked up deep down in some coalmine (and on top of it, it's MY coalmine, d*n it!) RegZ dj

To: TobagoJack who wrote (30024)	3/25/2003 9:48:10 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

It is much simpler, Jay. Iraq will be 'Israelized'. Here is why: Imagine a lot of men with 300 billion dollars but no practical purpose. Their purpose was to confront the coming Russians. Yes, those Russians than can't bolt dwn a decent car gear box. They haven't been demobilized after the Cold War ended. Facing the prospects of losing preminence -not to say a big chunk of the 300 billion dollars- they have to actively seek a purpose for themselves. There is Israel a kind of James Bond state supported by American dollars. The US 'defense' caste sought a similar situation in which they would play the role of the Israelis. Iraq will have it's Gaza Strips, Intifadas, couple of Hamas and Arafats, and a place for the miltitary to play around. The 300 billion dollars will be safe.