Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aerosappy who wrote (19207)	3/24/2003 1:26:42 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 23153

Aero, It depends on your timeframe. I seem to recall you as a longish term holder (3-6 months or more), but maybe that was just the old days in the Olde Country. Everyone's a trader these days, as well they should be. The daily chart, to me, is bearish. As I've said many times, this doesn't mean you can't make money going long this stock, if you pick your points correctly, but short term it might be difficult. The stock (see volume bars) has been selling off for quite a while and I think there's a better than 50% chance (technically, not fundamentally, about which I say nothing, because I know zip) that the 12.21 is going to prove to be a bottom in this name (barring a global meltdown which will lower all boats; but don't discount this too much). So, what to do? Short term (next 3-5 trading days), the movement on this name is down. Today looks like a bearish harami on falling volume; expect lower prices. Any break below 14 indicates it will go even lower; if 14 holds, reevaluate your view on this stock and your bid. If you're looking to buy off a second, rounded bottom, then set your lines at 12.53, with a stop loss at 1l.93, to limit the bad feelings that accompany a stock moving against you. If it broke below 11.93 that would foretell even lower prices. If 12.53 down to 12.35 or so holds on light-ish volume, then the test of the low looks good and you will see more buyers than sellers. But for longer term holders and more patient buyers, I'd suggest holding off for a longer time until the moving averages have closed in on the priceline and a positive movement (say, the priceline breaking above the 30 dma on strong volume ) occurs. Then it would be prudent to pick a pivot and buy when it breaks above that point (again with stop-loss prophylactic protection). I don't think it has to break above the 200 dma for this to happen, but it should be strongly above the 30 dma, something which will happen more easily if the stock can actually form a 2nd bottom in the 12.50-13 range over a period of several (10-12) trading days. Btw, since it is very important. I see lots of resistance at 16~16.50 and 17~18, so at this point I don't see an investment at 14.90 as being very attractive. This is also why a trading buy in the 12.50 range in a couple of days, if you bailed at 16, would be attractive even with a bearish stock. Finally, looking at DUK as a short: Nope. The best place to short (20/20 hindsight) was when it failed to rally off a base in the 20-21 range in January. Now you'd be shorting hoping for a breakdown and a failed 2nd bottom. Better to wait and see it actually happen first. Never trade on hope, it's a lesson that sometimes has to be learned over and over, but an important lesson. JMVVHO, Kb