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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9129)	3/24/2003 8:13:22 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95617

From Briefing.com: Updated: 25-Mar-03 - General Commentary - So that was relatively ugly. Each of the major averages got hammered Monday for single-session losses exceeding 3.5%. In fact, the Dow posted a single-day loss in excess of 300 points. Yet while the magnitude of the losses was pronounced, the underlying sell pressure was somewhat less daunting. The Nasdaq turned just 1.3 billion total shares, which was comfortably under last week's total volume readings of 1.7 to 1.9 billion. Nonetheless, a loss is a loss, and the markets' subsequent response on this initial pullback will be something to watch closely. Now from a technical perspective, it turns out that resistance ranging from Nasdaq 1419 to 1423 did indeed serve as a sticking point. Recall we initially expressed reservations regarding the index' capacity to navigate this 1423 area last Wednesday, March 19th. Then again on Friday, March 21st, we reiterated a cautious view of that narrow, four-point resistance range. While it is relatively clear the index had reached a logical point of consolidation -- both from a technical standpoint, and accounting for the socio-political backdrop -- we continue to face two primary points of interest: 1) assessing the aggressiveness of the pullback -- i.e. the extent of any technical damage the sell pressure might inflict, and 2) the identification of potential candidates for intermediate-term support. Looking towards the broader, intermediate-term support points, several areas stand out as potential candidates. In a piece written here this morning, we noted the index has what looks like a notable floor in the vicinity of 1361 to 1367. This range approximates a former Fibonacci retracement, and also brackets the index' 20-week exponential moving average. Today's intraday low at 1368 suggests the index is indeed finding buy interest in this general area. Yet if support at 1361 would fail, the Nasdaq has what should be a stronger floor in the broad range of 1342 to 1352. This range brackets the index' 200-day simple moving average, its 50-day simple moving average, its 20-day exponential moving average, as well as notable former straight-line resistance. Looking out beyond that, the index has additional support at a straight-line floor around 1320. Again, this initial pullback was less than surprising from both a technical perspective, and a fundamental standpoint. The real question pertains to the aggressiveness of this initial move lower. For the time being, the broader intermediate-term bias remains positive pending the index' response to several of the potential support points identified above. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com 1:59PM Merrill cautious on Conexant's debt, low profitability (CNXT) 1.72 +0.25: -- Update -- While Merrill Lynch views CNXT's spin-off of Mindspeed positively, they are still concerned about CNXT's profitability and debt; after the spin-off, firm expects CNXT will be left with about $260 mln in cash and $682 mln in debt, yet firm's model has CNXT generating only $50 mln in operating income in the 6 quarters following the spinoff. 8:28AM Conexant approves spin-off of Mindspeed unit (CNXT) 1.47: Announces that its board of directors has approved a plan to separate its Mindspeed Technologies Internet infrastructure business in a tax-free spin-off to shareowners. The spin-off, which is expected to be completed during the summer, will create two independent, publicly traded communications semiconductor companies. 9:44AM RF Micro Device: W.R. Hambrecht sees prospect of margin expansion (RFMD) 6.63 -0.32: WR Hambrecht reiterates its Buy rating based on the prospect of gross margin expansion to 40+% in the next 4 quarters vs. 37.3% in the DecQ stemming from 1) passive component integration directly on GaAs substrate, 2) move to leadframe from laminate-based PA modules, and 3) current fab transition from 4' to 6'. 9:31AM Juniper Networks: FBR says Q1 sales may be light; target $2 (JNPR) 8.70 -0.41: Friedman Billings Ramsey says that channel checks with competitors and customers indicate light Q1 revs (firm's Q1 rev est is $145 mln vs consensus of $154 mln); at 6x sales, former high-flier could occupy the void where the valuation is too high for value players and growth too low for momentum investors. Price target is $2. 8:15AM Power Integrations cut to Hold at Ferris Baker Watts on valuation; target $23 (POWI) 23.86: 7:40AM Agere Systems upgraded to Sector Outperform at CIBC on valuation; target $2 (AGR.A) 1.58: Stock currently trading at 1.3x EV/S multiple, a sizeable discount to peer group avg of 2.3-2.4x. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+AGRa+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+CNXT+INTC+JNPR+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+POWI+RFMD+TER+TXN+XLNX+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+^VIX+^VXN+^STI.N+SMH&d=t RtS