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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob oserin who wrote (43850)	3/25/2003 5:00:17 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Saddam Hussein has mined the approaches in the northern Persian Gulf the peninsula Faw is under control of the coalition and same goes to Umm Qasr. The reason that humanitarian supplies cannot come in is for the fact that Saddam, the President of Iraq who has little regard for the dissident population of the south, had made sure that even if Umm Qasr fell the goodwill generated by the coalition would be delayed by mining the shallow waterways in the northern Persian Gulf. The problem with the south is and most likely similar situation will be faced in the north that Saddam had sent few thousand of his party comrades and special security forces so that they can keep the regular army in check. We have not seen regular conscripts really taking a stand they have in effect given up within the first 24 hours. The issue here is that these very hardcore Baathist had formed the core which is resisting the liberation and last night in lightning operation British commandos moved into Baath party headquarters in Basra and killed the head of the Baath party including Saddam’s operatives in the area. These are the kind of operations, which will be required. This area is called the “Cradle of Civilisation” and as I was listening on Fox that American analysts were stating that these Iraqis are war-hardened and they know how to dig in and they know how to wait for their enemies. Enriched with long civilisation and hardened military virtues these people have the ability to stop any military ventures but the silver lining to the cloud is that the two factors did not help the Iraqis to stop the American coalition to reach the outskirts of Baghdad. I have to reemphasize that it is not an easy thing to make an army crumble in such a short time. In Iraq army is a secondary institution to the political forces of the country, that is Baathism. The culture is a clone of Naazism and it requires debathification. When the politicians control the army generals then regular army is secondary to the hard core elements of the political party as it has more favours bestowed upon by the regime. Political operatives are the ones upon which the regime rests. Saddam Hussein is a megalomaniac and is a sum total of evils of Stalin and Hitler. He has learnt from both how to defy and defiance wins times and he has seen time and again that as time passes the will of his enemies waver. That is how he won against Khomeini’s Iran. Iran, who never wanted a ceasefire, finally agreed after a 8-9 year war that they had no other choice. The entire philosophy of the Saddam is based upon the fact that the mission of the coalition should be delayed as much as possible and there should be a lot more civilian and military casualties. Even on his own side the more casualties the better place he is since he has seen how to play the international community and international community has definitely played into the hands of Saddam for last twelve years. His objectives are to fight a media war as he has no chance on the ground and delay the outcome as much as possible as some sort of ceasefire is agreed upon. The people in Basra and shi’ite south have their own agenda too. Their leadership like the Turks, who want control of the northern oil, want a control of the southern oil fields. They are looking for a more loose form of confederation, and there is a lack of cooperation from the Shi’ite who are looking towards Tehran for a direction. They are looking for the intervention of the Al-Badr, which is a Shi’ite division based in Iran, and has gained sympathy amongst the southerners. This is an Iraqi dissident division and the Americans are refusing to get dictated by Tehran or Ankara over what they consider to be a deceitful ploy to break post World War artificial creation of Iraq. There are political aims of the Shi’ite leadership in the south which are not synonymous with the goals of the Kurdish leadership of the north and there are regional players like Iran & Turkey who have a historical axe to grind. Their own agendas take supremacy take aims over civilian lives or life of an ordinary Iraqi. If one does not have a deep insight of the local players and cultures than foolish claims like “Iraq becoming Vietnam” can be made. But one needs to understand the undercurrent and the entire mosaic and the missing colours of the mosaic need to be placed to fall together. Saddam utility had been to keep Iraq together and the raison d’etre Saddam was spared in 1991 to total dismay of Basraites, who were later massacred. We should not forget that if one were to traverse the streets of Basra, as I have been during my escape during the Gulf War, that there is a lot of resentment towards Saddam but 1991 uprising and the way it was curtailed by Saddam is considered to be a betrayal for many southern Shi’ite. Therefore they want to lie low and not be cut down in half for subversion since they believe that Saddam is a survivalist, who bodes for time. They worry it might happen that on the outskirt of Baghdad some kind of peace is brokered by his old mayoral friend, Chirac. Within these limitations of global and local realities, here is a coalition force that has reached the outskirts of Baghdad and the consensus is that the real battle will start in Baghdad. Since Iraqis are hardened fighters they will make their last stand. The moment of truth for Baath party survivial is the next few days and I have absolutely no doubt that they will use every tool in their hands and the concept of red line is what I subscribe to. As the fall of Baghdad is expected, how it will fall and what will make it fall, there are various emerging scenarios. The fluidity of the campaign is also the result of deceitful nest of Saddam, if he chooses to go chemical than the factors would be different if he digs in and fight the outcome will be different. If he takes his battle troops within Baghdad than the siege of Baghdad because he will hijack his own population as a shield against the coalition. All these fluid issues can be discussed and we can keep writing a lot about it however with his evil agenda the coalition forces have their own game plan, which will inevitably lead to flushing them out. Americans have not yet employed their four divisions, which are fresh for entry to the war then don’t the possibility of dissident Iraqi battalions, trained outside, with 40,000 Kurdish peshmergas can form a core of a very light Iraqi liberation force like the Northern Alliance in Kabul. Within Baghdad there are lot of Shi’ite, kurds and tribes so once the tribes will the centre Iraq and they being confined to Baghdad and Kurdish forces marching down from the north under Arabic speaking commanders and dissident Iraqis under former commanders. Americans might not have enter Baghdad although this is just mere speculation but the fact is that the entire coalition efforts are entrenched in the framework of a clean warfare therefore you are noticing that hardened Iraqi troops and tanks on the ground are being taken every night one by one. This was no the case in the Iran-Iraq since it was Iraq who had the aerial supremacy as opposed to Iran. Once it took eleven months of stalemate with 120,000 deaths on just a few kilometres of Al-Faw peninsula. The change of hands cost 120,000 casualties. If Iraqis had been hardened fighters Al Faw and Umm Qasra were the most difficult targets, fought for during the Iran-Iraq war. Why would they lose their most important asset, the Al-Rumalia oilfields. These are the fields for which Iraq fought over with Kuwait because the latter was accused of stealing 5% of the field. Now they have lost a 100% of the oil fields and this is the lifeline for any Iraqi government since these are the most developed fields. The south has nearly 50 bn barrels of reserves out of 112bn of proven reserves. They have already lost and their armies stand belittled, scattered. He is injured, he’s making fabricated announcements, which reminds me of the Nazi party. Look at the shape and size of the Iraqi ministers coming on the tv and it is realisable what sort of butchers they really are. The prolonged sufferings and misery that the Iraqis having endured in spite of being the country with the second largest known oil reserves is a matter of shame and the poverty of Basra, akin to the South asian poverty and this is a oil rich. One can easily blame UN for the food for oil program and that 61bn$ of Iraqi oil has been sold but 21bn$ and the rest has gone for compensation. The problem is that Saddam’s policies for attacking his neighbours that they have to pay for such back-breaking compensation. The charges are common in the Arab world that Saddam with the blessings of USA and Saddam attacked Iran because US wanted Khomeini to be contained. The failures of the nation of Iraq under Saddam are catastrophic and one cannot just make others responsible for his own actions. I don’t see Stalingard type of stand since I don’t see that kind of will within Iraqis nor do I see the sort of barricades being erected within Iraq but within the last 6 years I take the greatest of honour in writing about the events before they events and if they don’t happen that is immaterial. The issue of discussion and when I listen to analysts at CNN, Fox & Sky I see that they don’t discuss these issues which we regularly highlight. I take great pride in that I am a small corner of a small thread of a small community and whilst we don’t influence world events, we still have the ability to pursue lines of thought that are contrary to the norm. The regime is tottering and is rattled. They are asking the Arab world to cut their oil supplies and cut relationships with the USA and UK. It is shame as hour of glory approaches at the darkest of moments we see some people amidst us giving up their hopes that show the difference between a man and a child on the block. We should not give hope. Global strategy is not a child’s game. Um Qasr will receive within nest 48 hours human supplies and eradication of longstanding human misery will see an end..