Lance:
Yeah, where is Cacaito? Good balance, logical approach. Sometimes quick to comment.
Yes, by AC I meant the Advisory Committee to the FDA.
>> I want to own good, honest, hard working companies in the biotech sector. You have demonstrated your interest in the same type of company <<
At one time, we had many scientists contributing here. They've all been so damn successful and have moved so far up in management and responsibility that they no longer have time to post. Honest! We celebrate promotions, in the background, frequently.
So...... the old style was to see where (the threads) knowledgeable sorts were prone to congregate. The background and research sneaked out, bit by bit. And then we collected the non-scientist freaks. I'm not going to mention any names, because there are about 15 biofreaks who work really hard to bring research here. But the story is pretty much the same..... contributors who want to find companies that are honestly pointing to MEDICINES tend to flock together.
So.... it's been more of a matter of developing respect for a given company, rather than promotion of it. I used to try to "tell the story", but..... (1) I got tired, and (2) I really, really, really blew it on occasion and got gun shy. Others have also sort of burned out, and thus the tilt to jargon rather than explanation??
>> I've never been able to understand why you displayed so much interest in the mechanics of trading VPHM and short interest and such <<
I've actively traded through the biotech recessions, '93-'94 and summer '98. No matter how bad the market and no matter that the bucks derived from a covert, it's just NOT NATURAL for a company, addressing such a large market (HCV) with a molecule in clinicals, to trade at (1) such an enormous discount to cash, and (2) a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of potential sales. I therefore tried to understand why the enormous short position was maintained "too long". We now know that there is at least one forward sale agreement out there, and that there are collars which encourage at least one party to short without mercy. They know that they're going to buy shares to cover with, one swoop. There has to be more, however. They've been *so* bold that they must also be the convert holders??
Anyway..... among all the speculation, there's the years of biotech investing that say "something smells rotten". It's so illogical that the shares could be capped to this degree for so long, given the Wyeth program.
The HCV market for a small molecule anti-viral (specific) is conservatively estimated at $3 billion. Wyeth and VPHM have taken the only molecule through to completion of phase II. It failed. But, they've got a second candidate three months into phase I testing, and it's a given that they learned something from the first pass. In addition, both Wyeth and VPHM have emphasized that the program has breadth and depth. The deal was one of the first "very rich" agreements for a biotech, with revenue split and potential co-market in the U.S. and royalties for the remainder of the world.
And yet the market cap has been fixed by sellers and/or shorters at about $30M when there's 4-5X that in the bank to aim at the program.
That's why I'm interested in the mechanics. We can watch, daily, money being made the old fashioned way..... deep-pocket bullies, beating up on little guys. It went on for so long and was so brazen (I loaded up at under a buck, off over 99% from the high), that I started to watch it, fascinated.
Moreover, I became interested in punishing those who were doing it, and have concentrated on forcing them -- bringing research forward re. project potential -- to burn more shares than they would otherwise need to burn. These guys are the meanest SOBs that I've ever encountered, short of (gulp!) Gliatech. Is that significant? That the last time I was this frustrated, there was a leak of insider information re. criminal fraud?
Get it now? Why I'm so intrigued? IT AIN'T NATURAL.
:-)
>> I keep looking to see the evidence of collusion <<
That's just a reflection of an active imagination, together with the "it ain't natural". I don't understand it, so I grasp at straws. But (1) they had a close relationship with George Soros and Perseus-Soros who still (or at last disclosure, in any event) owns shares connected with that forward sales agreement, and (2) it really wasn't cool when they released the "371" (HCV candidate) phase I news at a time where public relations professionals would normally tuck the very worst of disclosures.
If this seeming disdain for the investor is merely VPHM's confidence in the business plan, it's a very good thing. If not, it's a very bad thing.
:-)
Anyway..... I'll remain cryptic, diversify, and pray. That doesn't mean that I don't appreciate questions. And threadsters now know that you can be hit up re. QCOM.
:-)
Cheers! Rick |
