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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (250)	3/24/2003 10:57:42 PM
From: Londo	Respond to of 666

That's the problem - when the markets go up 13% from bottom to top in six or seven sessions, what is your natural reaction? Short the markets. It just seems too easy to go short at this time - it's not the 'least obvious path' quite yet. I suspect after month-end it will be. I'm certainly not bullish on the markets, but in the very very short term I am.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (250)	3/25/2003 11:37:17 AM
From: Londo	Respond to of 666

E-Mini S&P hit a low of 856 today, my order of 851 unfortunately was nowhere close to being hit. We'll probably see the S&P hit 900 from here on in. But after that, I'll start shorting with impunity. I guess I won't be trading until next week after all.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (250)	3/26/2003 1:40:50 PM
From: Londo	Respond to of 666

There should be one (maybe two) more pushes in the S&P 500 before I think it would be (relatively) safe to start shorting the index again. Unfortunately I still don't see enough 'bullish' indications quite yet - implied volatility is still not low enough (I want to see upper 20's) and there isn't enough public bullishness on the big media. It should take another 5%+ mini-rally to achieve that. And the S&P 900 mark is very psychological, once that is hit, enough covers and stops will get triggered to push it to about 910, but that will be about it. Because of the volatility situation, it might be a better play to buy medium-term put options on the SPX, as you could take advantage of a decline in the index as well as an increase in the index volatility. I'll investigate this if/when the S&P reaches 900-910. In the meantime, I am VERY full on cash right now, and I am patiently waiting for the right moment to strike. Which isn't now.