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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (30132)	3/26/2003 12:44:37 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Joel, I am still in Beijing, participating in various meetings, helping eager int’l businesses to enter China and assisting frantic multinational businesses to exit China. In the short term, I am neutral on whether companies are coming or going, as long as they are moving, but in the long run, I prefer that they are generally coming, so that a few will be seeking to leave later on. The China Central TV’s simultaneous interpreter (English-Chinese-English) who is doing the CNN simul-cast on CCTV is a friend. He reports that CCTV is also monitoring the Arabic satellite TV though not able to do simul-cast because there are no Chinese nationals available outside of government services able to simultaneous translate Arabic into Chinese, and so delayed broadcast of the alternative view is so. US VP Chenny will visit China next week, and UK PM Tony Blair is supposed to visit China in April. Should be interesting what is on offer and what is bid for, and should also be interesting if events allow Tony to show up on time at all. The smartest thing Chenny can do may be to simply sub-contract the Iraqi war effort to any one of many Chinese provincial government, and thus get the wet work done at a bargain price. The Chinese military folks are apparently busily reassessing their assumptions on the future progress of the Iraqi situation, as they apparently had felt at the time that the 1991 campaign would be harder for the US than it in fact turned out to be, and this time, had apparently underestimated the difficulty for the US side. They are also assessing the tactics of both sides, along with the US weapon systems and electronic systems against stuff they had been working on though never tested in combat. Taiwan may send some troops to the gulf, and that would be most unwise, even though the effort may generate some commercial contracts later, if and when later arrives, as they are not a UN recognized nation, and their troops, when and if captured by Iraqis, may be summarily executed as illegal combatants, without violating any global conventions. Besides, Taiwan imports all its oil from you-know-where, and may not survive any embargo at any future inconvenient time. In any case, Taiwan must not send too many troops, else not enough is guarding what needs to be kept secure. India is apparently itching to take a go at Pakistan, and if they do, the theater of conflagration will expand quite significantly, involving Jews, Moslems, Christians, and Hindus, across a huge swath of the planet. Meantime, the N.Koreans must be busy with their WMD program now, and that, combined with a mass refugee influx, not towards China but towards S.Korea, may make the situation on that peninsula untenable. In any case, Japan’s hand with regard to WMD may be tied to the Korean situation, thus bringing a Buddhist and Shinto conflict to higher state of potential energy. And yet, strangely, gold sits quietly at USD 330. In the mean nasty time, I have other concerns, as HK is apparently bracing for a wave of SARS patients this weekend due to incubation time lag. Chugs, Jay