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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: chowder who wrote (19239)3/26/2003 9:27:26 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill  Respond to of 23153
 
Dabum, this rally appears to me to be a mini-perfect storm.

The dollar bounced off of the lower end of it's downtrend line. When that happened it rallied the indices, killed gold, and killed the mining stocks. At the same time we chose to invade Iraq, and got the consequent rally - whether it be natural, forced, or some combination. There was an article on the BBC where the economic minister of Japan said he had met with Alan Greenspan, and the two of them planned to directly intervene in their markets to prop up prices.

When all of these things happened most indices were in oversold territory, and perhaps primed for a bounce anyway. I think all these factors came together, and gave us a frightfully strong bear market rally. Another well respected contrarian I read (sorry can't remember the name) expected a fierce 20-30% bear market rally. Looks like he may end up being correct.

These things in combination made me believe Monday's selloff was just a brief pause. Can't say when this will end, just not yet. Perhaps the end of the battles in Iraq will result in a sell the new event. Who knows?

Sharp